Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on September 21 will likely settle near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds typical of the Sichuan basin in late September. These conditions limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above seasonal norms for the date while suppressing any sharp drop that would favor sub-18°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflected in the 45% implied probability for 16°C or below appears driven by uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies overnight, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such cooling. Final resolution will hinge on official station readings after midnight local time, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact minimum before markets close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月21日の成都の最低気温は？
9月21日の成都の最低気温は？
19℃ 94%
16℃以下 90%
18℃ 90%
17°C 89%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
16℃以下
90%
17°C
89%
18℃
90%
19℃
94%
20℃
48%
21°C
49%
22°C
<1%
23℃
<1%
24℃
<1%
25°C
<1%
26℃以上
<1%
19℃ 94%
16℃以下 90%
18℃ 90%
17°C 89%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
16℃以下
$0 Vol.
90%
17°C
$0 Vol.
89%
18℃
$0 Vol.
90%
19℃
$0 Vol.
94%
20℃
$0 Vol.
48%
21°C
$12 Vol.
49%
22°C
$46 Vol.
<1%
23℃
$31 Vol.
<1%
24℃
$31 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
26℃以上
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on September 21 will likely settle near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds typical of the Sichuan basin in late September. These conditions limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above seasonal norms for the date while suppressing any sharp drop that would favor sub-18°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflected in the 45% implied probability for 16°C or below appears driven by uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies overnight, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such cooling. Final resolution will hinge on official station readings after midnight local time, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact minimum before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$182終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on September 21 will likely settle near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds typical of the Sichuan basin in late September. These conditions limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above seasonal norms for the date while suppressing any sharp drop that would favor sub-18°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflected in the 45% implied probability for 16°C or below appears driven by uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies overnight, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such cooling. Final resolution will hinge on official station readings after midnight local time, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact minimum before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$182終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on September 21 will likely settle near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds typical of the Sichuan basin in late September. These conditions limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures above seasonal norms for the date while suppressing any sharp drop that would favor sub-18°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflected in the 45% implied probability for 16°C or below appears driven by uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies overnight, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such cooling. Final resolution will hinge on official station readings after midnight local time, with updated model runs expected to refine the exact minimum before markets close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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