**Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted on September 23, 2026, to disqualify the Ra’am (United Arab List) slate—led by Mansour Abbas—from the October 27 Knesset election, along with the Joint List.** Petitions from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and victims’ groups cited alleged support for armed struggle against Israel, rejection of the state as Jewish and democratic, and ties to organizations linked to terrorism. The committee approved the moves by wide margins (18-5 range), but the Attorney General’s office stated the evidence fell short of the legal threshold under Basic Law: The Knesset Section 7A. Because these are full-list disqualifications rather than individual candidacies, the parties must actively appeal to the Supreme Court, with hearings expected the following week. Israeli courts have a consistent record of overturning most prior committee bans on Arab parties, reflecting the high evidentiary bar and the right to political participation. Ra’am has participated in prior coalitions and recently included Jewish candidates, further distinguishing its profile from harder-line lists. Traders price the “No” outcome (Ra’am not effectively banned) at 89.5% because the Supreme Court is widely viewed as the decisive body, the timeline is compressed before election day, and historical precedent plus institutional checks make final exclusion unlikely absent unusually strong new evidence. Any reversal would restore Ra’am to the ballot with minimal disruption to the campaign.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
11% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/27
はい
11% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/27
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ra'am is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ra'am from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Ra'am’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Ra'am being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Ra'am’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ra'am is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ra'am to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Ra'am will not qualify, provided Ra'am’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ra'am, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Ra'am; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted on September 23, 2026, to disqualify the Ra’am (United Arab List) slate—led by Mansour Abbas—from the October 27 Knesset election, along with the Joint List.** Petitions from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and victims’ groups cited alleged support for armed struggle against Israel, rejection of the state as Jewish and democratic, and ties to organizations linked to terrorism. The committee approved the moves by wide margins (18-5 range), but the Attorney General’s office stated the evidence fell short of the legal threshold under Basic Law: The Knesset Section 7A.
Because these are full-list disqualifications rather than individual candidacies, the parties must actively appeal to the Supreme Court, with hearings expected the following week. Israeli courts have a consistent record of overturning most prior committee bans on Arab parties, reflecting the high evidentiary bar and the right to political participation. Ra’am has participated in prior coalitions and recently included Jewish candidates, further distinguishing its profile from harder-line lists.
Traders price the “No” outcome (Ra’am not effectively banned) at 89.5% because the Supreme Court is widely viewed as the decisive body, the timeline is compressed before election day, and historical precedent plus institutional checks make final exclusion unlikely absent unusually strong new evidence. Any reversal would restore Ra’am to the ballot with minimal disruption to the campaign.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ra'am is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ra'am from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Ra'am’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Ra'am being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Ra'am’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ra'am is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ra'am to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Ra'am will not qualify, provided Ra'am’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ra'am, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Ra'am; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ra'am is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ra'am from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Ra'am’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Ra'am being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Ra'am’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ra'am is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ra'am to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Ra'am will not qualify, provided Ra'am’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ra'am, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Ra'am; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ra'am is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ra'am from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Ra'am’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Ra'am being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Ra'am’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ra'am is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ra'am to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Ra'am will not qualify, provided Ra'am’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ra'am, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Ra'am; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted on September 23, 2026, to disqualify the Ra’am (United Arab List) slate—led by Mansour Abbas—from the October 27 Knesset election, along with the Joint List.** Petitions from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and victims’ groups cited alleged support for armed struggle against Israel, rejection of the state as Jewish and democratic, and ties to organizations linked to terrorism. The committee approved the moves by wide margins (18-5 range), but the Attorney General’s office stated the evidence fell short of the legal threshold under Basic Law: The Knesset Section 7A.
Because these are full-list disqualifications rather than individual candidacies, the parties must actively appeal to the Supreme Court, with hearings expected the following week. Israeli courts have a consistent record of overturning most prior committee bans on Arab parties, reflecting the high evidentiary bar and the right to political participation. Ra’am has participated in prior coalitions and recently included Jewish candidates, further distinguishing its profile from harder-line lists.
Traders price the “No” outcome (Ra’am not effectively banned) at 89.5% because the Supreme Court is widely viewed as the decisive body, the timeline is compressed before election day, and historical precedent plus institutional checks make final exclusion unlikely absent unusually strong new evidence. Any reversal would restore Ra’am to the ballot with minimal disruption to the campaign.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ra'am is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ra'am from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Ra'am’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Ra'am being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Ra'am’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ra'am is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ra'am to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Ra'am will not qualify, provided Ra'am’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ra'am, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Ra'am; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ra'am is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ra'am from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Ra'am’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Ra'am being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Ra'am’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ra'am is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ra'am to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Ra'am will not qualify, provided Ra'am’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ra'am, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Ra'am; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...**Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted on September 23, 2026, to disqualify the Ra’am (United Arab List) slate—led by Mansour Abbas—from the October 27 Knesset election, along with the Joint List.** Petitions from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and victims’ groups cited alleged support for armed struggle against Israel, rejection of the state as Jewish and democratic, and ties to organizations linked to terrorism. The committee approved the moves by wide margins (18-5 range), but the Attorney General’s office stated the evidence fell short of the legal threshold under Basic Law: The Knesset Section 7A. Because these are full-list disqualifications rather than individual candidacies, the parties must actively appeal to the Supreme Court, with hearings expected the following week. Israeli courts have a consistent record of overturning most prior committee bans on Arab parties, reflecting the high evidentiary bar and the right to political participation. Ra’am has participated in prior coalitions and recently included Jewish candidates, further distinguishing its profile from harder-line lists. Traders price the “No” outcome (Ra’am not effectively banned) at 89.5% because the Supreme Court is widely viewed as the decisive body, the timeline is compressed before election day, and historical precedent plus institutional checks make final exclusion unlikely absent unusually strong new evidence. Any reversal would restore Ra’am to the ballot with minimal disruption to the campaign.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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