Austin Rogers secured the Republican nomination in the August 2026 primary for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District after Neal Dunn’s retirement, consolidating support among GOP voters in a district that favored Donald Trump by nearly 20 points in 2024. His background as former general counsel to Senator Rick Scott, combined with endorsements from House leaders and local officials plus superior fundraising, positioned him as the consensus choice in a solidly Republican seat rated Safe or Solid R by major forecasters. Amanda Green’s Democratic primary victory occurred in a lower-turnout contest with limited resources. The 90.5% implied probability for Rogers reflects these structural and campaign factors, though late-breaking events such as a major scandal or significant national partisan shift could still alter the November 3 outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,946 Vol.
$15,946 Vol.
2026/11/02
オースティン・ロジャース（共和党）
91%
アマンダ・グリーン（民主党）
9%
$15,946 Vol.
$15,946 Vol.
2026/11/02
オースティン・ロジャース（共和党）
$9,846 Vol.
91%
アマンダ・グリーン（民主党）
$6,100 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Austin Rogers secured the Republican nomination in the August 2026 primary for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District after Neal Dunn’s retirement, consolidating support among GOP voters in a district that favored Donald Trump by nearly 20 points in 2024. His background as former general counsel to Senator Rick Scott, combined with endorsements from House leaders and local officials plus superior fundraising, positioned him as the consensus choice in a solidly Republican seat rated Safe or Solid R by major forecasters. Amanda Green’s Democratic primary victory occurred in a lower-turnout contest with limited resources. The 90.5% implied probability for Rogers reflects these structural and campaign factors, though late-breaking events such as a major scandal or significant national partisan shift could still alter the November 3 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$15,946終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Austin Rogers secured the Republican nomination in the August 2026 primary for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District after Neal Dunn’s retirement, consolidating support among GOP voters in a district that favored Donald Trump by nearly 20 points in 2024. His background as former general counsel to Senator Rick Scott, combined with endorsements from House leaders and local officials plus superior fundraising, positioned him as the consensus choice in a solidly Republican seat rated Safe or Solid R by major forecasters. Amanda Green’s Democratic primary victory occurred in a lower-turnout contest with limited resources. The 90.5% implied probability for Rogers reflects these structural and campaign factors, though late-breaking events such as a major scandal or significant national partisan shift could still alter the November 3 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,946終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Austin Rogers secured the Republican nomination in the August 2026 primary for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District after Neal Dunn’s retirement, consolidating support among GOP voters in a district that favored Donald Trump by nearly 20 points in 2024. His background as former general counsel to Senator Rick Scott, combined with endorsements from House leaders and local officials plus superior fundraising, positioned him as the consensus choice in a solidly Republican seat rated Safe or Solid R by major forecasters. Amanda Green’s Democratic primary victory occurred in a lower-turnout contest with limited resources. The 90.5% implied probability for Rogers reflects these structural and campaign factors, though late-breaking events such as a major scandal or significant national partisan shift could still alter the November 3 outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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