Mike Derry holds a commanding position in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the United Conservative Party’s established strength in the south Calgary riding, where it secured 56% of the vote in 2023 against the NDP. As the UCP nominee since June, Derry benefits from party infrastructure, Premier Danielle Smith’s endorsement, and the riding’s suburban conservative base amid limited recent polling shifts. The by-election, scheduled for September 14 following Rebecca Schulz’s resignation, features NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and several minor-party entrants, but none have mounted a sustained challenge. Trader consensus reflects the UCP’s historical margin and low likelihood of an upset in a short campaign window. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpectedly high opposition turnout, late developments in the concurrent provincial referendum, or unforeseen candidate controversies before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日マイク・デリー 95%
カイル・キャンベル 3.5%
ジョン・ロッゲビーン <1%
カイル・ジョセフ <1%
$21,105 Vol.
$21,105 Vol.
マイク・デリー
95%
カイル・キャンベル
4%
ジョン・ロッゲビーン
<1%
カイル・ジョセフ
<1%
マイク・デリー 95%
カイル・キャンベル 3.5%
ジョン・ロッゲビーン <1%
カイル・ジョセフ <1%
$21,105 Vol.
$21,105 Vol.
マイク・デリー
95%
カイル・キャンベル
4%
ジョン・ロッゲビーン
<1%
カイル・ジョセフ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a commanding position in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the United Conservative Party’s established strength in the south Calgary riding, where it secured 56% of the vote in 2023 against the NDP. As the UCP nominee since June, Derry benefits from party infrastructure, Premier Danielle Smith’s endorsement, and the riding’s suburban conservative base amid limited recent polling shifts. The by-election, scheduled for September 14 following Rebecca Schulz’s resignation, features NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and several minor-party entrants, but none have mounted a sustained challenge. Trader consensus reflects the UCP’s historical margin and low likelihood of an upset in a short campaign window. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpectedly high opposition turnout, late developments in the concurrent provincial referendum, or unforeseen candidate controversies before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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