Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding lead in the California 23rd congressional district race, reflecting the district’s Republican lean, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a registration edge favoring his party. Obernolte advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, while Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge secured the second spot at 21 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising advantage with over $1.5 million raised and substantial cash on hand compared with Hodge’s limited resources. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though a late national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or health event could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$60,915 Vol.
$60,915 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジェイ・オバーノルテ（共和党）
93%
テッサ・リン・ホッジ（民主党）
6%
$60,915 Vol.
$60,915 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジェイ・オバーノルテ（共和党）
$28,704 Vol.
93%
テッサ・リン・ホッジ（民主党）
$32,211 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding lead in the California 23rd congressional district race, reflecting the district’s Republican lean, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a registration edge favoring his party. Obernolte advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, while Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge secured the second spot at 21 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising advantage with over $1.5 million raised and substantial cash on hand compared with Hodge’s limited resources. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though a late national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or health event could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$60,915終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding lead in the California 23rd congressional district race, reflecting the district’s Republican lean, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a registration edge favoring his party. Obernolte advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, while Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge secured the second spot at 21 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising advantage with over $1.5 million raised and substantial cash on hand compared with Hodge’s limited resources. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though a late national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or health event could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$60,915終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding lead in the California 23rd congressional district race, reflecting the district’s Republican lean, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a registration edge favoring his party. Obernolte advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, while Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge secured the second spot at 21 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising advantage with over $1.5 million raised and substantial cash on hand compared with Hodge’s limited resources. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though a late national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or health event could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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