China maintains routine military and coast guard activity around Taiwan, including aircraft incursions and vessel patrols, while both sides conduct scheduled exercises and Taiwan advances defense preparations such as record spending and drone integration drawn from recent conflicts. No verified large-scale amphibious buildup, mobilization orders, or diplomatic rupture has occurred in recent weeks that would signal an imminent full invasion. With roughly three weeks remaining before the September 30, 2026 cutoff, the compressed timeline and absence of observable force posture changes underpin the near-unanimous trader view against an attack. Late developments such as an abrupt escalation or miscalculation remain theoretically possible but lack supporting indicators at present.