Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale mobilization, amphibious buildup, or crossing of key thresholds in the final weeks before the deadline. Ongoing PLA activities center on normalized patrols, joint blockade and quarantine drills, and coast guard operations east of the island, consistent with long-term pressure tactics rather than imminent kinetic action. Taiwanese defense reports note persistent gaps in Chinese sealift and landing capacity for a full assault, while recent supplementary budgets and missile programs underscore Taipei’s incremental hardening of defenses. A planned Trump-Xi summit later this month introduces diplomatic variables, yet no public statements or movements signal an abrupt shift toward invasion within the narrow remaining window. Late developments such as an unforeseen escalation tied to the summit or rapid capability surprise remain theoretically possible but lack supporting indicators at present.