Trader consensus on a "No" outcome at 95.5% reflects the extended timelines required for new indictments, trials, and sentencing tied specifically to post-2025 Epstein file releases, with Ghislaine Maxwell's prior conviction falling outside the resolution criteria. Document disclosures under the Epstein Files Transparency Act have prompted congressional scrutiny and international inquiries, yet U.S. authorities have not announced charges against additional individuals that would produce qualifying incarceration by December 31, 2026. Historical patterns show civil settlements and public naming without corresponding criminal prosecutions, while procedural hurdles such as evidence authentication and prosecutorial discretion further limit near-term jailings. Late developments like fresh indictments or plea agreements directly linked to the new materials could still shift probabilities before year-end.