President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations of a possible end to the 1992 moratorium on explosive tests. Subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve subcritical experiments, systems tests, and non-explosive evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. Senior officials, including the Energy Secretary and U.S. Strategic Command nominee, have affirmed that annual stockpile certifications confirm reliability without explosive testing and see no military requirement for resumption. These developments, alongside ongoing congressional oversight and international nonproliferation concerns, have shaped trader consensus around low near-term probabilities for an explosive nuclear test by late 2026. No firm timeline for any shift in policy has been announced.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$795,296 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre 2026
1%
31 dicembre 2026
5%
$795,296 Vol.
30 settembre 2026
$57,565 Vol.
1%
31 dicembre 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations of a possible end to the 1992 moratorium on explosive tests. Subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve subcritical experiments, systems tests, and non-explosive evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. Senior officials, including the Energy Secretary and U.S. Strategic Command nominee, have affirmed that annual stockpile certifications confirm reliability without explosive testing and see no military requirement for resumption. These developments, alongside ongoing congressional oversight and international nonproliferation concerns, have shaped trader consensus around low near-term probabilities for an explosive nuclear test by late 2026. No firm timeline for any shift in policy has been announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,296Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations of a possible end to the 1992 moratorium on explosive tests. Subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve subcritical experiments, systems tests, and non-explosive evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. Senior officials, including the Energy Secretary and U.S. Strategic Command nominee, have affirmed that annual stockpile certifications confirm reliability without explosive testing and see no military requirement for resumption. These developments, alongside ongoing congressional oversight and international nonproliferation concerns, have shaped trader consensus around low near-term probabilities for an explosive nuclear test by late 2026. No firm timeline for any shift in policy has been announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,296Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations of a possible end to the 1992 moratorium on explosive tests. Subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve subcritical experiments, systems tests, and non-explosive evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. Senior officials, including the Energy Secretary and U.S. Strategic Command nominee, have affirmed that annual stockpile certifications confirm reliability without explosive testing and see no military requirement for resumption. These developments, alongside ongoing congressional oversight and international nonproliferation concerns, have shaped trader consensus around low near-term probabilities for an explosive nuclear test by late 2026. No firm timeline for any shift in policy has been announced.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti