The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.33% amid expectations for a higher-for-longer federal funds rate following the Fed’s September 2026 quarter-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range under Chair Warsh. Hawkish SEP projections, resilient growth, and sticky inflation have lifted the market-implied rate path, widening term premia as heavy Treasury issuance competes with corporate borrowing and fiscal deficits. Elevated real yields reflect both policy uncertainty and structural supply pressures, limiting near-term downside despite potential cooling in labor data or energy prices. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift trader consensus on the low before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$14,287 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 5,20%
61%
Sotto il 5,15%
56%
Sotto il 5,10%
43%
Sotto 5,05%
38%
Sotto il 5,00%
30%
Sotto il 4,95%
27%
Sotto il 4,90%
19%
Sotto il 4,80%
14%
Sotto il 4,60%
3%
$14,287 Vol.
Sotto il 5,20%
$1,512 Vol.
61%
Sotto il 5,15%
$775 Vol.
56%
Sotto il 5,10%
$1,843 Vol.
43%
Sotto 5,05%
$234 Vol.
38%
Sotto il 5,00%
$1,930 Vol.
30%
Sotto il 4,95%
$561 Vol.
27%
Sotto il 4,90%
$1,158 Vol.
19%
Sotto il 4,80%
$3,100 Vol.
14%
Sotto il 4,60%
$3,173 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.33% amid expectations for a higher-for-longer federal funds rate following the Fed’s September 2026 quarter-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range under Chair Warsh. Hawkish SEP projections, resilient growth, and sticky inflation have lifted the market-implied rate path, widening term premia as heavy Treasury issuance competes with corporate borrowing and fiscal deficits. Elevated real yields reflect both policy uncertainty and structural supply pressures, limiting near-term downside despite potential cooling in labor data or energy prices. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift trader consensus on the low before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$14,287Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.33% amid expectations for a higher-for-longer federal funds rate following the Fed’s September 2026 quarter-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range under Chair Warsh. Hawkish SEP projections, resilient growth, and sticky inflation have lifted the market-implied rate path, widening term premia as heavy Treasury issuance competes with corporate borrowing and fiscal deficits. Elevated real yields reflect both policy uncertainty and structural supply pressures, limiting near-term downside despite potential cooling in labor data or energy prices. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift trader consensus on the low before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$14,287Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.33% amid expectations for a higher-for-longer federal funds rate following the Fed’s September 2026 quarter-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range under Chair Warsh. Hawkish SEP projections, resilient growth, and sticky inflation have lifted the market-implied rate path, widening term premia as heavy Treasury issuance competes with corporate borrowing and fiscal deficits. Elevated real yields reflect both policy uncertainty and structural supply pressures, limiting near-term downside despite potential cooling in labor data or energy prices. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, FOMC communications, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift trader consensus on the low before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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