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icon for Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?
Economy·Tassi Fed

Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?

icon for Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?
Economy·Tassi Fed

Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?

NUOVO
30 dic 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

5,25%

$0 Vol.

17%

5,10%

$0 Vol.

23%

5,00%

$0 Vol.

32%

4,95%

$0 Vol.

41%

4,90%

$0 Vol.

43%

4,85%

$0 Vol.

52%

4,80%

$0 Vol.

56%

4,75%

$0 Vol.

65%

4,70%

$0 Vol.

71%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.57-4.62% as of September 9, 2026, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels around 3.6% amid resilient U.S. growth, elevated AI-driven capital spending, and sticky core inflation.** These factors have lifted market-implied expectations for the Fed’s terminal policy rate, with the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75% and most analysts expecting it to hold steady through year-end or see a possible 25-basis-point hike at the September FOMC meeting. Heavy Treasury issuance to finance wide fiscal deficits, a rising term premium, and lingering energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions have further supported higher real yields and pushed the curve steeper at the intermediate maturities. Upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC decision, fresh CPI and PPI releases, and labor-market data that could shift rate-path pricing and test whether yields extend their recent advance before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.57-4.62% as of September 9, 2026, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels around 3.6% amid resilient U.S. growth, elevated AI-driven capital spending, and sticky core inflation.** These factors have lifted market-implied expectations for the Fed’s terminal policy rate, with the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75% and most analysts expecting it to hold steady through year-end or see a possible 25-basis-point hike at the September FOMC meeting. Heavy Treasury issuance to finance wide fiscal deficits, a rising term premium, and lingering energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions have further supported higher real yields and pushed the curve steeper at the intermediate maturities. Upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC decision, fresh CPI and PPI releases, and labor-market data that could shift rate-path pricing and test whether yields extend their recent advance before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...

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"Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 9 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "4,70%" a 71%, seguito da "4,75%" a 65%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 71¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 71% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Sep 2, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?", esplora i 9 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?" è "4,70%" a 71%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 71% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "4,75%" a 65%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 5 anni prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.