The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.30% as of mid-September 2026 and up over 50 basis points year-over-year, has been driven higher primarily by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the fed funds target raised to the 3.75-4.00% range amid inflation remaining above the 2% objective and resilient nominal GDP growth. Elevated term premia reflect structural pressures including large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury and corporate (including AI-related) issuance, reduced Fed balance sheet absorption, and geopolitical tensions lifting energy prices and real yields. Market-implied paths now embed limited near-term easing and possible additional tightening, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and labor data likely to influence whether yields test multi-decade highs before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$35,669 Vol.
30 dic 2026
6,00%
14%
5,80%
6%
5,70%
8%
5,65%
12%
5,60%
28%
5,55%
42%
5,50%
56%
5,45%
74%
5,40%
56%
$35,669 Vol.
6,00%
$2,751 Vol.
14%
5,80%
$6,759 Vol.
6%
5,70%
$2,859 Vol.
8%
5,65%
$4,392 Vol.
12%
5,60%
$2,909 Vol.
28%
5,55%
$2,529 Vol.
42%
5,50%
$2,257 Vol.
56%
5,45%
$4,488 Vol.
74%
5,40%
$6,725 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.30% as of mid-September 2026 and up over 50 basis points year-over-year, has been driven higher primarily by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the fed funds target raised to the 3.75-4.00% range amid inflation remaining above the 2% objective and resilient nominal GDP growth. Elevated term premia reflect structural pressures including large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury and corporate (including AI-related) issuance, reduced Fed balance sheet absorption, and geopolitical tensions lifting energy prices and real yields. Market-implied paths now embed limited near-term easing and possible additional tightening, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and labor data likely to influence whether yields test multi-decade highs before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$35,669Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.30% as of mid-September 2026 and up over 50 basis points year-over-year, has been driven higher primarily by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the fed funds target raised to the 3.75-4.00% range amid inflation remaining above the 2% objective and resilient nominal GDP growth. Elevated term premia reflect structural pressures including large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury and corporate (including AI-related) issuance, reduced Fed balance sheet absorption, and geopolitical tensions lifting energy prices and real yields. Market-implied paths now embed limited near-term easing and possible additional tightening, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and labor data likely to influence whether yields test multi-decade highs before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$35,669Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.30% as of mid-September 2026 and up over 50 basis points year-over-year, has been driven higher primarily by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the fed funds target raised to the 3.75-4.00% range amid inflation remaining above the 2% objective and resilient nominal GDP growth. Elevated term premia reflect structural pressures including large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury and corporate (including AI-related) issuance, reduced Fed balance sheet absorption, and geopolitical tensions lifting energy prices and real yields. Market-implied paths now embed limited near-term easing and possible additional tightening, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and labor data likely to influence whether yields test multi-decade highs before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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