Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. He secured the top spot in the June 2 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent. The district's Republican tilt, demonstrated by Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin in 2024 and Obernolte's own 60 percent victory that year, combined with his substantial fundraising edge and the absence of major recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpins trader consensus around a wide Republican margin. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Late-breaking developments, such as unexpected scandals, health issues, or national political swings, remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-23
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-23
$60,915 Vol.
$60,915 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jay Obernolte (R)
93%
Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)
6%
$60,915 Vol.
$60,915 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jay Obernolte (R)
$28,704 Vol.
93%
Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)
$32,211 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. He secured the top spot in the June 2 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent. The district's Republican tilt, demonstrated by Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin in 2024 and Obernolte's own 60 percent victory that year, combined with his substantial fundraising edge and the absence of major recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpins trader consensus around a wide Republican margin. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Late-breaking developments, such as unexpected scandals, health issues, or national political swings, remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$60,915Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. He secured the top spot in the June 2 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent. The district's Republican tilt, demonstrated by Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin in 2024 and Obernolte's own 60 percent victory that year, combined with his substantial fundraising edge and the absence of major recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpins trader consensus around a wide Republican margin. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Late-breaking developments, such as unexpected scandals, health issues, or national political swings, remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$60,915Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. He secured the top spot in the June 2 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent. The district's Republican tilt, demonstrated by Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin in 2024 and Obernolte's own 60 percent victory that year, combined with his substantial fundraising edge and the absence of major recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpins trader consensus around a wide Republican margin. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Late-breaking developments, such as unexpected scandals, health issues, or national political swings, remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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