The CA-11 district's heavy Democratic tilt, reflected in consistent double-digit margins in recent statewide races and a Partisan Voter Index around D+36, anchors trader consensus. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2 advanced two Democrats—Scott Wiener and Connie Chan—to the November 3 general election, eliminating any realistic Republican path. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Limited polling shows the intra-party race remains competitive between the two frontrunners, yet this has no bearing on party control. Only an unprecedented reversal in district fundamentals or a late disqualifying event could alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$21,768 Vol.
$21,768 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
$21,768 Vol.
$21,768 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$6,788 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The CA-11 district's heavy Democratic tilt, reflected in consistent double-digit margins in recent statewide races and a Partisan Voter Index around D+36, anchors trader consensus. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2 advanced two Democrats—Scott Wiener and Connie Chan—to the November 3 general election, eliminating any realistic Republican path. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Limited polling shows the intra-party race remains competitive between the two frontrunners, yet this has no bearing on party control. Only an unprecedented reversal in district fundamentals or a late disqualifying event could alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,768Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The CA-11 district's heavy Democratic tilt, reflected in consistent double-digit margins in recent statewide races and a Partisan Voter Index around D+36, anchors trader consensus. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2 advanced two Democrats—Scott Wiener and Connie Chan—to the November 3 general election, eliminating any realistic Republican path. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Limited polling shows the intra-party race remains competitive between the two frontrunners, yet this has no bearing on party control. Only an unprecedented reversal in district fundamentals or a late disqualifying event could alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,768Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...The CA-11 district's heavy Democratic tilt, reflected in consistent double-digit margins in recent statewide races and a Partisan Voter Index around D+36, anchors trader consensus. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but California's top-two primary on June 2 advanced two Democrats—Scott Wiener and Connie Chan—to the November 3 general election, eliminating any realistic Republican path. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Limited polling shows the intra-party race remains competitive between the two frontrunners, yet this has no bearing on party control. Only an unprecedented reversal in district fundamentals or a late disqualifying event could alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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