The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—after Thompson captured roughly 41% and Jones 22%, ahead of the leading Republican at about 21%. This outcome, combined with the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters such as Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produces the market’s 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Thompson’s consistent double-digit general-election margins in prior cycles, substantial cash reserves, and institutional endorsements reinforce the partisan baseline. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or a late-breaking scandal severe enough to suppress Democratic turnout entirely before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$5,915 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$7,806 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—after Thompson captured roughly 41% and Jones 22%, ahead of the leading Republican at about 21%. This outcome, combined with the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters such as Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produces the market’s 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Thompson’s consistent double-digit general-election margins in prior cycles, substantial cash reserves, and institutional endorsements reinforce the partisan baseline. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or a late-breaking scandal severe enough to suppress Democratic turnout entirely before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,721Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—after Thompson captured roughly 41% and Jones 22%, ahead of the leading Republican at about 21%. This outcome, combined with the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters such as Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produces the market’s 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Thompson’s consistent double-digit general-election margins in prior cycles, substantial cash reserves, and institutional endorsements reinforce the partisan baseline. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or a late-breaking scandal severe enough to suppress Democratic turnout entirely before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,721Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—after Thompson captured roughly 41% and Jones 22%, ahead of the leading Republican at about 21%. This outcome, combined with the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters such as Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produces the market’s 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Thompson’s consistent double-digit general-election margins in prior cycles, substantial cash reserves, and institutional endorsements reinforce the partisan baseline. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or a late-breaking scandal severe enough to suppress Democratic turnout entirely before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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