Anthropic’s September 22 release of Claude Opus 5.5, priced at $4/$20 per million tokens with performance matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 on agentic coding, knowledge work, and safety benchmarks, is the main catalyst behind current market pricing. Fable 5.1-max holds the second-highest implied probability because it remains a top performer on several independent leaderboards released in early September, yet traders assign only 39.5% odds to it prevailing by the 28th. The 61% probability on “Other” reflects the tight race with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and the fact that no single Claude variant leads every major benchmark category. With just five days until resolution, any new benchmark update or capability demonstration could quickly shift the narrow gap between these frontier models.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 28 settembre?
Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 28 settembre?
Altro 61%
claude-fable-5.1-max 40%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
28 set 2026
Altro
61%
claude-fable-5.1-max
40%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
Altro 61%
claude-fable-5.1-max 40%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
28 set 2026
Altro
$793 Vol.
61%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$452 Vol.
40%
claude-opus-5-high
$137 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-5-max
$144 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$166 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 22 release of Claude Opus 5.5, priced at $4/$20 per million tokens with performance matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 on agentic coding, knowledge work, and safety benchmarks, is the main catalyst behind current market pricing. Fable 5.1-max holds the second-highest implied probability because it remains a top performer on several independent leaderboards released in early September, yet traders assign only 39.5% odds to it prevailing by the 28th. The 61% probability on “Other” reflects the tight race with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and the fact that no single Claude variant leads every major benchmark category. With just five days until resolution, any new benchmark update or capability demonstration could quickly shift the narrow gap between these frontier models.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Volume
$1,690Data di fine
28 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 22 release of Claude Opus 5.5, priced at $4/$20 per million tokens with performance matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 on agentic coding, knowledge work, and safety benchmarks, is the main catalyst behind current market pricing. Fable 5.1-max holds the second-highest implied probability because it remains a top performer on several independent leaderboards released in early September, yet traders assign only 39.5% odds to it prevailing by the 28th. The 61% probability on “Other” reflects the tight race with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and the fact that no single Claude variant leads every major benchmark category. With just five days until resolution, any new benchmark update or capability demonstration could quickly shift the narrow gap between these frontier models.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,690Data di fine
28 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47de9d...Anthropic’s September 22 release of Claude Opus 5.5, priced at $4/$20 per million tokens with performance matching or exceeding Fable 5.1 on agentic coding, knowledge work, and safety benchmarks, is the main catalyst behind current market pricing. Fable 5.1-max holds the second-highest implied probability because it remains a top performer on several independent leaderboards released in early September, yet traders assign only 39.5% odds to it prevailing by the 28th. The 61% probability on “Other” reflects the tight race with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and the fact that no single Claude variant leads every major benchmark category. With just five days until resolution, any new benchmark update or capability demonstration could quickly shift the narrow gap between these frontier models.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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