Trump floated the idea of $2,000-per-person tariff dividends for lower- and middle-income Americans in November 2025, citing projected customs revenue. However, no authorizing legislation has advanced through Congress, with related bills remaining stalled in committee as of September 2026. Tariff collections have reached roughly $200 billion annually, well below the $300–600 billion cost of broad rebates under most eligibility designs analyzed by the Tax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab. Administration officials have described any payments as requiring legislative approval, while revenue has also been earmarked for tax cuts and deficit reduction. With the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaching and no scheduled floor action, traders assign high probability to the outcome not occurring.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui10% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
10% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump floated the idea of $2,000-per-person tariff dividends for lower- and middle-income Americans in November 2025, citing projected customs revenue. However, no authorizing legislation has advanced through Congress, with related bills remaining stalled in committee as of September 2026. Tariff collections have reached roughly $200 billion annually, well below the $300–600 billion cost of broad rebates under most eligibility designs analyzed by the Tax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab. Administration officials have described any payments as requiring legislative approval, while revenue has also been earmarked for tax cuts and deficit reduction. With the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaching and no scheduled floor action, traders assign high probability to the outcome not occurring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,251Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump floated the idea of $2,000-per-person tariff dividends for lower- and middle-income Americans in November 2025, citing projected customs revenue. However, no authorizing legislation has advanced through Congress, with related bills remaining stalled in committee as of September 2026. Tariff collections have reached roughly $200 billion annually, well below the $300–600 billion cost of broad rebates under most eligibility designs analyzed by the Tax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab. Administration officials have described any payments as requiring legislative approval, while revenue has also been earmarked for tax cuts and deficit reduction. With the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaching and no scheduled floor action, traders assign high probability to the outcome not occurring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,251Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump floated the idea of $2,000-per-person tariff dividends for lower- and middle-income Americans in November 2025, citing projected customs revenue. However, no authorizing legislation has advanced through Congress, with related bills remaining stalled in committee as of September 2026. Tariff collections have reached roughly $200 billion annually, well below the $300–600 billion cost of broad rebates under most eligibility designs analyzed by the Tax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab. Administration officials have described any payments as requiring legislative approval, while revenue has also been earmarked for tax cuts and deficit reduction. With the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaching and no scheduled floor action, traders assign high probability to the outcome not occurring.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan