The Philippine Senate's composition and the two-thirds threshold for conviction—requiring 16 of 24 senator-judges—form the core driver of trader sentiment against conviction in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The House transmitted articles in May 2026 alleging betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and related charges tied to confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and procurement matters during her vice presidency and prior DepEd role. As the trial entered its 28th day in September 2026, with witnesses testifying on business interests and contracts, Duterte-aligned blocs in the chamber have limited cross-aisle support for reaching the required majority. This dynamic, combined with the extended timeline and procedural disputes, underpins the 63.5% implied probability traders assign to no conviction by year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
37% peluang
$13,954 Vol.
$13,954 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
37% peluang
$13,954 Vol.
$13,954 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's composition and the two-thirds threshold for conviction—requiring 16 of 24 senator-judges—form the core driver of trader sentiment against conviction in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The House transmitted articles in May 2026 alleging betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and related charges tied to confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and procurement matters during her vice presidency and prior DepEd role. As the trial entered its 28th day in September 2026, with witnesses testifying on business interests and contracts, Duterte-aligned blocs in the chamber have limited cross-aisle support for reaching the required majority. This dynamic, combined with the extended timeline and procedural disputes, underpins the 63.5% implied probability traders assign to no conviction by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$13,954Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's composition and the two-thirds threshold for conviction—requiring 16 of 24 senator-judges—form the core driver of trader sentiment against conviction in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The House transmitted articles in May 2026 alleging betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and related charges tied to confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and procurement matters during her vice presidency and prior DepEd role. As the trial entered its 28th day in September 2026, with witnesses testifying on business interests and contracts, Duterte-aligned blocs in the chamber have limited cross-aisle support for reaching the required majority. This dynamic, combined with the extended timeline and procedural disputes, underpins the 63.5% implied probability traders assign to no conviction by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$13,954Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate's composition and the two-thirds threshold for conviction—requiring 16 of 24 senator-judges—form the core driver of trader sentiment against conviction in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The House transmitted articles in May 2026 alleging betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and related charges tied to confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and procurement matters during her vice presidency and prior DepEd role. As the trial entered its 28th day in September 2026, with witnesses testifying on business interests and contracts, Duterte-aligned blocs in the chamber have limited cross-aisle support for reaching the required majority. This dynamic, combined with the extended timeline and procedural disputes, underpins the 63.5% implied probability traders assign to no conviction by year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan