Recent minor incidents, including a roughly six-hour credit delay affecting the Claude API and console on October 1 plus elevated errors across claude.ai, Code, Cowork, and the API on September 29, underscore Anthropic’s pattern of intermittent degraded performance amid rapid large language model scaling. Official status data shows claude.ai maintaining 99.4–99.7% uptime over the prior 90 days, yet dozens of short incidents monthly—often tied to infrastructure strain or billing glitches—suggest multiple days could see partial outages or access issues in October. Traders appear to weigh this track record against the absence of major structural problems or upcoming regulatory shifts, producing closely matched probabilities for 5–7 versus 8–10 affected days. Ongoing monitoring of inference load and any new model releases will likely influence sentiment through the month.