Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” because the nine-day window to September 30, 2026, leaves no realistic time for the large-scale mobilization, logistics, and command preparations required for a cross-strait invasion. Recent months show continued gray-zone pressure through Chinese coast-guard patrols east of Taiwan and reduced but persistent PLA aircraft activity, alongside Taiwanese drills featuring drones, anti-ship missiles, and joint readiness exercises. Beijing’s focus remains on normalizing presence and building longer-term capabilities rather than launching an immediate offensive. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry indicate the PLA still lacks sufficient amphibious lift and sustainment for a full invasion. A Trump-Xi summit scheduled for the coming weeks further underscores the absence of acute escalation signals. Only an unforeseen, rapid miscalculation could theoretically shift the outcome before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui<1% peluang
$2,166,639 Vol.
$2,166,639 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% peluang
$2,166,639 Vol.
$2,166,639 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” because the nine-day window to September 30, 2026, leaves no realistic time for the large-scale mobilization, logistics, and command preparations required for a cross-strait invasion. Recent months show continued gray-zone pressure through Chinese coast-guard patrols east of Taiwan and reduced but persistent PLA aircraft activity, alongside Taiwanese drills featuring drones, anti-ship missiles, and joint readiness exercises. Beijing’s focus remains on normalizing presence and building longer-term capabilities rather than launching an immediate offensive. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry indicate the PLA still lacks sufficient amphibious lift and sustainment for a full invasion. A Trump-Xi summit scheduled for the coming weeks further underscores the absence of acute escalation signals. Only an unforeseen, rapid miscalculation could theoretically shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,166,639Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” because the nine-day window to September 30, 2026, leaves no realistic time for the large-scale mobilization, logistics, and command preparations required for a cross-strait invasion. Recent months show continued gray-zone pressure through Chinese coast-guard patrols east of Taiwan and reduced but persistent PLA aircraft activity, alongside Taiwanese drills featuring drones, anti-ship missiles, and joint readiness exercises. Beijing’s focus remains on normalizing presence and building longer-term capabilities rather than launching an immediate offensive. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry indicate the PLA still lacks sufficient amphibious lift and sustainment for a full invasion. A Trump-Xi summit scheduled for the coming weeks further underscores the absence of acute escalation signals. Only an unforeseen, rapid miscalculation could theoretically shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,166,639Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” because the nine-day window to September 30, 2026, leaves no realistic time for the large-scale mobilization, logistics, and command preparations required for a cross-strait invasion. Recent months show continued gray-zone pressure through Chinese coast-guard patrols east of Taiwan and reduced but persistent PLA aircraft activity, alongside Taiwanese drills featuring drones, anti-ship missiles, and joint readiness exercises. Beijing’s focus remains on normalizing presence and building longer-term capabilities rather than launching an immediate offensive. Assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry indicate the PLA still lacks sufficient amphibious lift and sustainment for a full invasion. A Trump-Xi summit scheduled for the coming weeks further underscores the absence of acute escalation signals. Only an unforeseen, rapid miscalculation could theoretically shift the outcome before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan