China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, combined with independent forecasts clustered between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, underpins the strong market preference for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome. First-quarter expansion reached 5.0 percent year-on-year before moderating to around 4.5 percent in the second quarter, reflecting resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing offset by weak domestic demand and property-sector adjustment. Fiscal policy, including a 4 percent of GDP deficit target and special bond issuance, plus incremental monetary easing, provides calibrated support. Recent U.S.-China tariff reductions have eased external pressures, while subdued consumption and global demand risks limit upside. These factors align trader pricing with the observed range of outlooks ahead of further policy signals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 5.8%
9.0%+ 1.4%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
$898,218 Vol.
$898,218 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
90%
5.0–6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
1%
4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 5.8%
9.0%+ 1.4%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
$898,218 Vol.
$898,218 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$68,051 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$75,379 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$45,830 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,476 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$222,330 Vol.
90%
5.0–6.0%
$80,873 Vol.
6%
6.0-7.0%
$87,943 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$65,353 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$54,234 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$116,748 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, combined with independent forecasts clustered between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, underpins the strong market preference for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome. First-quarter expansion reached 5.0 percent year-on-year before moderating to around 4.5 percent in the second quarter, reflecting resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing offset by weak domestic demand and property-sector adjustment. Fiscal policy, including a 4 percent of GDP deficit target and special bond issuance, plus incremental monetary easing, provides calibrated support. Recent U.S.-China tariff reductions have eased external pressures, while subdued consumption and global demand risks limit upside. These factors align trader pricing with the observed range of outlooks ahead of further policy signals.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$898,218Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, combined with independent forecasts clustered between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, underpins the strong market preference for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome. First-quarter expansion reached 5.0 percent year-on-year before moderating to around 4.5 percent in the second quarter, reflecting resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing offset by weak domestic demand and property-sector adjustment. Fiscal policy, including a 4 percent of GDP deficit target and special bond issuance, plus incremental monetary easing, provides calibrated support. Recent U.S.-China tariff reductions have eased external pressures, while subdued consumption and global demand risks limit upside. These factors align trader pricing with the observed range of outlooks ahead of further policy signals.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$898,218Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, combined with independent forecasts clustered between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, underpins the strong market preference for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome. First-quarter expansion reached 5.0 percent year-on-year before moderating to around 4.5 percent in the second quarter, reflecting resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing offset by weak domestic demand and property-sector adjustment. Fiscal policy, including a 4 percent of GDP deficit target and special bond issuance, plus incremental monetary easing, provides calibrated support. Recent U.S.-China tariff reductions have eased external pressures, while subdued consumption and global demand risks limit upside. These factors align trader pricing with the observed range of outlooks ahead of further policy signals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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