Strong El Niño conditions and persistently high vertical wind shear continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development, leaving the 2026 season with zero hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy through late September. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes basin-wide through November 30, while recent model runs show limited development potential in the remaining peak weeks. Historical analogs for strong El Niño years and the current late-season timing further reduce the likelihood of a Category 4 system (Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall. Traders’ 91.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this consensus, though an unexpected rapid intensification event or late-November formation could still alter outcomes before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
9% peluang
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% peluang
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions and persistently high vertical wind shear continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development, leaving the 2026 season with zero hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy through late September. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes basin-wide through November 30, while recent model runs show limited development potential in the remaining peak weeks. Historical analogs for strong El Niño years and the current late-season timing further reduce the likelihood of a Category 4 system (Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall. Traders’ 91.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this consensus, though an unexpected rapid intensification event or late-November formation could still alter outcomes before year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$343,898Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions and persistently high vertical wind shear continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development, leaving the 2026 season with zero hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy through late September. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes basin-wide through November 30, while recent model runs show limited development potential in the remaining peak weeks. Historical analogs for strong El Niño years and the current late-season timing further reduce the likelihood of a Category 4 system (Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall. Traders’ 91.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this consensus, though an unexpected rapid intensification event or late-November formation could still alter outcomes before year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$343,898Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions and persistently high vertical wind shear continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development, leaving the 2026 season with zero hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy through late September. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes basin-wide through November 30, while recent model runs show limited development potential in the remaining peak weeks. Historical analogs for strong El Niño years and the current late-season timing further reduce the likelihood of a Category 4 system (Saffir-Simpson scale) organizing and tracking toward U.S. landfall. Traders’ 91.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this consensus, though an unexpected rapid intensification event or late-November formation could still alter outcomes before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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