**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, with the market-implied probability at 84%.** This positioning reflects verified USGS and global catalog data showing a single qualifying event: a magnitude 6.5 quake at approximately 98–112 km depth in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, on September 17. No other events reached the 6.5 threshold that week. The M6.4 quake near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea, on September 20 registered just below the cutoff, while earlier September activity (including a prior M6.5) fell outside the window. Global rates of M6.5+ events average roughly 1–2 per week, but the observed quiet period—with no model-indicated clusters or aftershock sequences pushing additional quakes over the threshold—supports the strong market-implied odds for a count of one. Resolution hinges on final USGS-reviewed magnitudes and locations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
1 99.0%
2 2.5%
3 2.2%
4 1.1%
$14,906 Vol.
$14,906 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
0
1%
1
99%
2
3%
3
2%
4
1%
5
1%
more than 5
1%
1 99.0%
2 2.5%
3 2.2%
4 1.1%
$14,906 Vol.
$14,906 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
0
$5,878 Vol.
1%
1
$4,946 Vol.
99%
2
$2,701 Vol.
3%
3
$328 Vol.
2%
4
$241 Vol.
1%
5
$467 Vol.
1%
more than 5
$344 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, with the market-implied probability at 84%.** This positioning reflects verified USGS and global catalog data showing a single qualifying event: a magnitude 6.5 quake at approximately 98–112 km depth in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, on September 17. No other events reached the 6.5 threshold that week. The M6.4 quake near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea, on September 20 registered just below the cutoff, while earlier September activity (including a prior M6.5) fell outside the window. Global rates of M6.5+ events average roughly 1–2 per week, but the observed quiet period—with no model-indicated clusters or aftershock sequences pushing additional quakes over the threshold—supports the strong market-implied odds for a count of one. Resolution hinges on final USGS-reviewed magnitudes and locations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$14,906Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, with the market-implied probability at 84%.** This positioning reflects verified USGS and global catalog data showing a single qualifying event: a magnitude 6.5 quake at approximately 98–112 km depth in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, on September 17. No other events reached the 6.5 threshold that week. The M6.4 quake near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea, on September 20 registered just below the cutoff, while earlier September activity (including a prior M6.5) fell outside the window. Global rates of M6.5+ events average roughly 1–2 per week, but the observed quiet period—with no model-indicated clusters or aftershock sequences pushing additional quakes over the threshold—supports the strong market-implied odds for a count of one. Resolution hinges on final USGS-reviewed magnitudes and locations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$14,906Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, with the market-implied probability at 84%.** This positioning reflects verified USGS and global catalog data showing a single qualifying event: a magnitude 6.5 quake at approximately 98–112 km depth in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, on September 17. No other events reached the 6.5 threshold that week. The M6.4 quake near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea, on September 20 registered just below the cutoff, while earlier September activity (including a prior M6.5) fell outside the window. Global rates of M6.5+ events average roughly 1–2 per week, but the observed quiet period—with no model-indicated clusters or aftershock sequences pushing additional quakes over the threshold—supports the strong market-implied odds for a count of one. Resolution hinges on final USGS-reviewed magnitudes and locations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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