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icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politik·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politik·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$412,533 Vol.

Polymarket

$412,533 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$164,911 Vol.

10%

John Brennan

$22,332 Vol.

21%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$23,455 Vol.

11%

Adam Schiff

$16,570 Vol.

2%

Barack Obama

$29,276 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$10,821 Vol.

8%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,329 Vol.

21%

James Clapper

$7,264 Vol.

11%

Letitia James

$3,047 Vol.

9%

Hillary Clinton

$26,182 Vol.

2%

Bill Clinton

$2,726 Vol.

1%

Loretta Lynch

$2,411 Vol.

8%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

7%

Candace Owens

$268 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$39,425 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,936 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$503 Vol.

1%

Pam Bondi

$2,189 Vol.

2%

Tom Homan

$41,331 Vol.

5%

Kash Patel

$598 Vol.

1%

Brandon Johnson

$3,290 Vol.

11%

Lisa Cook

$4,005 Vol.

3%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$7,565 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market reflects ongoing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, and enforcement actions against former officials and activists ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Leading probabilities center on figures such as John Brennan amid intelligence-related probes and Mahmoud Khalil following prior ICE detention and court rulings on immigration matters. Anthony Fauci drew attention after his July 2026 Senate testimony, during which he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly regarding COVID-19 origins. Broader factors include Senate dynamics, potential contempt proceedings, federal fraud crackdowns, and international cases involving diplomats or activists. Short remaining timeline and high evidentiary thresholds for physical custody or qualifying detention limit near-term shifts, though new indictments or enforcement priorities could alter implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$412,533
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market reflects ongoing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, and enforcement actions against former officials and activists ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Leading probabilities center on figures such as John Brennan amid intelligence-related probes and Mahmoud Khalil following prior ICE detention and court rulings on immigration matters. Anthony Fauci drew attention after his July 2026 Senate testimony, during which he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly regarding COVID-19 origins. Broader factors include Senate dynamics, potential contempt proceedings, federal fraud crackdowns, and international cases involving diplomats or activists. Short remaining timeline and high evidentiary thresholds for physical custody or qualifying detention limit near-term shifts, though new indictments or enforcement priorities could alter implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$412,533
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

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Obama arrested before 2027?

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Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?

12%
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Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

7%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Who will be arrested before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 24 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "John Brennan" di 21%, diikuti oleh "Mahmoud Khalil" di 21%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 21¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 21% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Who will be arrested before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $412.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 30, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Who will be arrested before 2027?," jelajahi 24 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Who will be arrested before 2027?" adalah "John Brennan" di 21%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 21% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Mahmoud Khalil" di 21%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Who will be arrested before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.