Recent diplomatic progress, including the October signing of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, has anchored trader expectations that the pause in direct hostilities will hold through the November midterms. Ongoing mediated talks, extensions of the initial framework without new large-scale strikes, and statements from both sides favoring continued negotiations over immediate escalation support the 78.5% implied probability for "Yes." Incidents such as tanker disruptions and mutual warnings have occurred but have not derailed the process, reflecting the administration's focus on de-escalation amid domestic political timelines.