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icon for Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Politik·Kanada

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

icon for Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Politik·Kanada

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

12% peluang
Polymarket

$158,971 Vol.

12% peluang
Polymarket

$158,971 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre retains strong backing from the party base following his 87 percent leadership review victory in January 2026 after the 2025 general election loss to Prime Minister Mark Carney. Recent caucus discussions in September 2026 revealed private concerns among some MPs over polling deficits and seat vulnerabilities amid Liberal gains and floor crossings, yet party sources report no organized effort to trigger a Reform Act removal or leadership contest. With the next formal review not imminent and limited interest in alternatives, traders assign an 88 percent probability that Poilievre remains in place through December 2026. Upcoming parliamentary sessions and any byelection results could test internal cohesion, though structural barriers to an early ouster appear high.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$158,971
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre retains strong backing from the party base following his 87 percent leadership review victory in January 2026 after the 2025 general election loss to Prime Minister Mark Carney. Recent caucus discussions in September 2026 revealed private concerns among some MPs over polling deficits and seat vulnerabilities amid Liberal gains and floor crossings, yet party sources report no organized effort to trigger a Reform Act removal or leadership contest. With the next formal review not imminent and limited interest in alternatives, traders assign an 88 percent probability that Poilievre remains in place through December 2026. Upcoming parliamentary sessions and any byelection results could test internal cohesion, though structural barriers to an early ouster appear high.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$158,971
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 12% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 12¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 12% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" telah menghasilkan $159K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" adalah 12% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 12% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.