The competitiveness of the 2026 New York gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman remains the central factor shaping trader expectations for total ballots cast on November 3. Recent polls show Hochul leading by margins ranging from 4 to 20 points, with some surveys highlighting a Republican enthusiasm edge outside New York City that could lift suburban and upstate participation. Off-year dynamics, including the absence of a presidential race, typically moderate statewide turnout compared with 2024 levels, while Democratic advantages in registration and New York City voting patterns support mid-range outcomes. Any further tightening in the race, shifts in independent sentiment, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts by either party could push totals higher or lower within the current spread of market probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNew York Governor Election: Turnout
New York Governor Election: Turnout
<4.5M 26%
5.5M-6M 23%
4.5M-5M 22%
6M-6.5M 19%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
<4.5M
26%
4.5M-5M
22%
5M-5.5M
17%
5.5M-6M
23%
6M-6.5M
19%
6.5M-7M
18%
7M+
8%
<4.5M 26%
5.5M-6M 23%
4.5M-5M 22%
6M-6.5M 19%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
<4.5M
$26 Vol.
26%
4.5M-5M
$26 Vol.
22%
5M-5.5M
$26 Vol.
17%
5.5M-6M
$33 Vol.
23%
6M-6.5M
$42 Vol.
19%
6.5M-7M
$26 Vol.
18%
7M+
$26 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitiveness of the 2026 New York gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman remains the central factor shaping trader expectations for total ballots cast on November 3. Recent polls show Hochul leading by margins ranging from 4 to 20 points, with some surveys highlighting a Republican enthusiasm edge outside New York City that could lift suburban and upstate participation. Off-year dynamics, including the absence of a presidential race, typically moderate statewide turnout compared with 2024 levels, while Democratic advantages in registration and New York City voting patterns support mid-range outcomes. Any further tightening in the race, shifts in independent sentiment, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts by either party could push totals higher or lower within the current spread of market probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Volume
$204Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitiveness of the 2026 New York gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman remains the central factor shaping trader expectations for total ballots cast on November 3. Recent polls show Hochul leading by margins ranging from 4 to 20 points, with some surveys highlighting a Republican enthusiasm edge outside New York City that could lift suburban and upstate participation. Off-year dynamics, including the absence of a presidential race, typically moderate statewide turnout compared with 2024 levels, while Democratic advantages in registration and New York City voting patterns support mid-range outcomes. Any further tightening in the race, shifts in independent sentiment, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts by either party could push totals higher or lower within the current spread of market probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$204Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The competitiveness of the 2026 New York gubernatorial contest between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman remains the central factor shaping trader expectations for total ballots cast on November 3. Recent polls show Hochul leading by margins ranging from 4 to 20 points, with some surveys highlighting a Republican enthusiasm edge outside New York City that could lift suburban and upstate participation. Off-year dynamics, including the absence of a presidential race, typically moderate statewide turnout compared with 2024 levels, while Democratic advantages in registration and New York City voting patterns support mid-range outcomes. Any further tightening in the race, shifts in independent sentiment, or intensified get-out-the-vote efforts by either party could push totals higher or lower within the current spread of market probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
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