Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race after decisively winning his September 1 primary against Rep. Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The state's consistent Democratic tilt, reflected in recent presidential margins and a partisan voting index exceeding D+14, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97% implied probability. Polling averages show Markey ahead of Republican nominee John Deaton by 20 points or more, consistent with historical patterns for Democratic Senate candidates in the commonwealth. Deaton's unopposed primary win provides limited momentum against these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$48,024 Vol.
$48,024 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Markey (D)
97%
John Deaton (R)
3%
$48,024 Vol.
$48,024 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Markey (D)
$35,054 Vol.
97%
John Deaton (R)
$12,970 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race after decisively winning his September 1 primary against Rep. Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The state's consistent Democratic tilt, reflected in recent presidential margins and a partisan voting index exceeding D+14, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97% implied probability. Polling averages show Markey ahead of Republican nominee John Deaton by 20 points or more, consistent with historical patterns for Democratic Senate candidates in the commonwealth. Deaton's unopposed primary win provides limited momentum against these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Pasar Dibuka: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$48,024Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race after decisively winning his September 1 primary against Rep. Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The state's consistent Democratic tilt, reflected in recent presidential margins and a partisan voting index exceeding D+14, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97% implied probability. Polling averages show Markey ahead of Republican nominee John Deaton by 20 points or more, consistent with historical patterns for Democratic Senate candidates in the commonwealth. Deaton's unopposed primary win provides limited momentum against these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$48,024Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race after decisively winning his September 1 primary against Rep. Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The state's consistent Democratic tilt, reflected in recent presidential margins and a partisan voting index exceeding D+14, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97% implied probability. Polling averages show Markey ahead of Republican nominee John Deaton by 20 points or more, consistent with historical patterns for Democratic Senate candidates in the commonwealth. Deaton's unopposed primary win provides limited momentum against these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan