Michigan leads trader consensus for Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity due to its open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement in an even-partisan battleground where recent polls show narrow margins between progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate it a tossup amid high outside spending and primary fallout that has complicated Democratic consolidation. Alaska and Maine follow closely, reflecting competitive matchups with Mary Peltola challenging Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting and Troy Jackson facing Susan Collins in a state with Democratic presidential lean. Texas, Iowa, and Ohio register lower probabilities as Republican-held seats that have tightened into tossups per recent forecasts but face steeper structural hurdles for Democratic gains. Overall Senate control forecasts have shifted toward even odds as multiple races narrowed in recent weeks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 56%
Alaska 16%
Maine 15%
Texas 7%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
56%
Alaska
16%
Maine
15%
Texas
7%
Iowa
3%
Ohio
3%
Michigan 56%
Alaska 16%
Maine 15%
Texas 7%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$2,711 Vol.
56%
Alaska
$221 Vol.
16%
Maine
$226 Vol.
15%
Texas
$134 Vol.
7%
Iowa
$129 Vol.
3%
Ohio
$293 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan leads trader consensus for Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity due to its open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement in an even-partisan battleground where recent polls show narrow margins between progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate it a tossup amid high outside spending and primary fallout that has complicated Democratic consolidation. Alaska and Maine follow closely, reflecting competitive matchups with Mary Peltola challenging Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting and Troy Jackson facing Susan Collins in a state with Democratic presidential lean. Texas, Iowa, and Ohio register lower probabilities as Republican-held seats that have tightened into tossups per recent forecasts but face steeper structural hurdles for Democratic gains. Overall Senate control forecasts have shifted toward even odds as multiple races narrowed in recent weeks.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,714Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan leads trader consensus for Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity due to its open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement in an even-partisan battleground where recent polls show narrow margins between progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate it a tossup amid high outside spending and primary fallout that has complicated Democratic consolidation. Alaska and Maine follow closely, reflecting competitive matchups with Mary Peltola challenging Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting and Troy Jackson facing Susan Collins in a state with Democratic presidential lean. Texas, Iowa, and Ohio register lower probabilities as Republican-held seats that have tightened into tossups per recent forecasts but face steeper structural hurdles for Democratic gains. Overall Senate control forecasts have shifted toward even odds as multiple races narrowed in recent weeks.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,714Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michigan leads trader consensus for Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity due to its open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement in an even-partisan battleground where recent polls show narrow margins between progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate it a tossup amid high outside spending and primary fallout that has complicated Democratic consolidation. Alaska and Maine follow closely, reflecting competitive matchups with Mary Peltola challenging Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting and Troy Jackson facing Susan Collins in a state with Democratic presidential lean. Texas, Iowa, and Ohio register lower probabilities as Republican-held seats that have tightened into tossups per recent forecasts but face steeper structural hurdles for Democratic gains. Overall Senate control forecasts have shifted toward even odds as multiple races narrowed in recent weeks.
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