**Heavy rain, persistent cloud cover, and northerly winds are keeping Tokyo’s overnight minimum temperatures tightly clustered near 22°C on September 21.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (GFS and others) forecast a low of 21–23 °C, with the most likely value centered on 22 °C amid widespread precipitation and high humidity that limit both daytime heating and nighttime radiational cooling. Current surface observations show temperatures already in the low-20s °C range under overcast skies, consistent with the market’s 88.5 % implied probability for exactly 22 °C. A modest risk of a 21 °C reading (11 % implied) exists if heavier rain bands enhance cooling, while warmer outcomes remain improbable given the entrenched synoptic pattern. Traders are closely watching the next JMA update and any late-model shifts before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
22°C 89%
21°C 11%
20°C 4%
19°C 2%
BARU
BARU
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
4%
21°C
11%
22°C
89%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 89%
21°C 11%
20°C 4%
19°C 2%
BARU
BARU
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
$332 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$576 Vol.
2%
20°C
$552 Vol.
4%
21°C
$891 Vol.
11%
22°C
$1,645 Vol.
89%
23°C
$1,195 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Heavy rain, persistent cloud cover, and northerly winds are keeping Tokyo’s overnight minimum temperatures tightly clustered near 22°C on September 21.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (GFS and others) forecast a low of 21–23 °C, with the most likely value centered on 22 °C amid widespread precipitation and high humidity that limit both daytime heating and nighttime radiational cooling. Current surface observations show temperatures already in the low-20s °C range under overcast skies, consistent with the market’s 88.5 % implied probability for exactly 22 °C. A modest risk of a 21 °C reading (11 % implied) exists if heavier rain bands enhance cooling, while warmer outcomes remain improbable given the entrenched synoptic pattern. Traders are closely watching the next JMA update and any late-model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,327Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Heavy rain, persistent cloud cover, and northerly winds are keeping Tokyo’s overnight minimum temperatures tightly clustered near 22°C on September 21.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (GFS and others) forecast a low of 21–23 °C, with the most likely value centered on 22 °C amid widespread precipitation and high humidity that limit both daytime heating and nighttime radiational cooling. Current surface observations show temperatures already in the low-20s °C range under overcast skies, consistent with the market’s 88.5 % implied probability for exactly 22 °C. A modest risk of a 21 °C reading (11 % implied) exists if heavier rain bands enhance cooling, while warmer outcomes remain improbable given the entrenched synoptic pattern. Traders are closely watching the next JMA update and any late-model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,327Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Heavy rain, persistent cloud cover, and northerly winds are keeping Tokyo’s overnight minimum temperatures tightly clustered near 22°C on September 21.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple numerical models (GFS and others) forecast a low of 21–23 °C, with the most likely value centered on 22 °C amid widespread precipitation and high humidity that limit both daytime heating and nighttime radiational cooling. Current surface observations show temperatures already in the low-20s °C range under overcast skies, consistent with the market’s 88.5 % implied probability for exactly 22 °C. A modest risk of a 21 °C reading (11 % implied) exists if heavier rain bands enhance cooling, while warmer outcomes remain improbable given the entrenched synoptic pattern. Traders are closely watching the next JMA update and any late-model shifts before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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