**Traders assign overwhelming probability (98.4%) to fewer than five Khamenei posts in the September 18–25, 2026 window because the Supreme Leader’s official X accounts have long followed a low-volume pattern of occasional formal statements rather than frequent personal updates.** Ali Khamenei’s accounts historically issued sparse, high-profile messages on regional developments, with activity often limited to key religious or political occasions; his successor Mojtaba Khamenei has continued this restrained approach amid ongoing U.S.-Israel tensions and internal Iranian dynamics. Recent verifiable activity shows only isolated posts or archival reposts in mid-to-late September, consistent with the established cadence. Scenarios that could realistically increase volume include a major diplomatic announcement, escalation in regional conflicts prompting multiple official responses, or health-related updates on the leader himself, though none of these have materialized in the immediate period to shift the current trader consensus.