Traders assign a 95.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to extensive damage inflicted on key enrichment facilities during 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes, combined with persistent IAEA denial of access to verify or advance the program. Recent developments, including the IAEA board's September 9, 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance and satellite evidence of accelerated construction at the Pickaxe Mountain underground site near Natanz, reflect efforts to protect remaining assets rather than immediate weaponization. Ongoing diplomatic pressure, military threats, and technical hurdles from disrupted centrifuge operations and unaccounted highly enriched uranium stockpiles reinforce the consensus. Scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to conduct a test amid escalated conflict or successful covert assembly of a device despite current constraints.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% peluang
$257,365 Vol.
$257,365 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$257,365 Vol.
$257,365 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to extensive damage inflicted on key enrichment facilities during 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes, combined with persistent IAEA denial of access to verify or advance the program. Recent developments, including the IAEA board's September 9, 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance and satellite evidence of accelerated construction at the Pickaxe Mountain underground site near Natanz, reflect efforts to protect remaining assets rather than immediate weaponization. Ongoing diplomatic pressure, military threats, and technical hurdles from disrupted centrifuge operations and unaccounted highly enriched uranium stockpiles reinforce the consensus. Scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to conduct a test amid escalated conflict or successful covert assembly of a device despite current constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$257,365Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to extensive damage inflicted on key enrichment facilities during 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes, combined with persistent IAEA denial of access to verify or advance the program. Recent developments, including the IAEA board's September 9, 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance and satellite evidence of accelerated construction at the Pickaxe Mountain underground site near Natanz, reflect efforts to protect remaining assets rather than immediate weaponization. Ongoing diplomatic pressure, military threats, and technical hurdles from disrupted centrifuge operations and unaccounted highly enriched uranium stockpiles reinforce the consensus. Scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to conduct a test amid escalated conflict or successful covert assembly of a device despite current constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$257,365Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to extensive damage inflicted on key enrichment facilities during 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes, combined with persistent IAEA denial of access to verify or advance the program. Recent developments, including the IAEA board's September 9, 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance and satellite evidence of accelerated construction at the Pickaxe Mountain underground site near Natanz, reflect efforts to protect remaining assets rather than immediate weaponization. Ongoing diplomatic pressure, military threats, and technical hurdles from disrupted centrifuge operations and unaccounted highly enriched uranium stockpiles reinforce the consensus. Scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid Iranian decision to conduct a test amid escalated conflict or successful covert assembly of a device despite current constraints.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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