Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with multiple weaponization sites, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched material buried or inaccessible. The IAEA has been denied verification access since the strikes, prompting its September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance—the first such action in two decades. These setbacks, combined with stalled diplomacy and no detected resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. A policy reversal by Iranian leadership or covert recovery of stockpiles could still alter timelines, though reconstruction and testing would require months of undetected effort amid heightened scrutiny.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
4% peluang
$257,368 Vol.
$257,368 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% peluang
$257,368 Vol.
$257,368 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with multiple weaponization sites, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched material buried or inaccessible. The IAEA has been denied verification access since the strikes, prompting its September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance—the first such action in two decades. These setbacks, combined with stalled diplomacy and no detected resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. A policy reversal by Iranian leadership or covert recovery of stockpiles could still alter timelines, though reconstruction and testing would require months of undetected effort amid heightened scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$257,368Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with multiple weaponization sites, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched material buried or inaccessible. The IAEA has been denied verification access since the strikes, prompting its September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance—the first such action in two decades. These setbacks, combined with stalled diplomacy and no detected resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. A policy reversal by Iranian leadership or covert recovery of stockpiles could still alter timelines, though reconstruction and testing would require months of undetected effort amid heightened scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$257,368Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with multiple weaponization sites, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched material buried or inaccessible. The IAEA has been denied verification access since the strikes, prompting its September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards non-compliance—the first such action in two decades. These setbacks, combined with stalled diplomacy and no detected resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. A policy reversal by Iranian leadership or covert recovery of stockpiles could still alter timelines, though reconstruction and testing would require months of undetected effort amid heightened scrutiny.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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