President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked initial market activity, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments and system tests at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify reliability without them. Accusations of low-yield Chinese activity in 2020 and New START's February 2026 expiration heightened scrutiny, yet technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers persist. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with low implied probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026 absent major policy shifts or verified escalatory developments.
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$795,296 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 September 2026
1%
31 Desember 2026
6%
$795,296 Vol.
30 September 2026
$57,565 Vol.
1%
31 Desember 2026
$76,920 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked initial market activity, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments and system tests at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify reliability without them. Accusations of low-yield Chinese activity in 2020 and New START's February 2026 expiration heightened scrutiny, yet technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers persist. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with low implied probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026 absent major policy shifts or verified escalatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,296Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked initial market activity, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments and system tests at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify reliability without them. Accusations of low-yield Chinese activity in 2020 and New START's February 2026 expiration heightened scrutiny, yet technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers persist. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with low implied probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026 absent major policy shifts or verified escalatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,296Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked initial market activity, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments and system tests at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify reliability without them. Accusations of low-yield Chinese activity in 2020 and New START's February 2026 expiration heightened scrutiny, yet technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers persist. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with low implied probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026 absent major policy shifts or verified escalatory developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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