Darin LaHood’s position as the Republican incumbent in Illinois’s 16th congressional district underpins the market’s strong consensus, with the seat carrying an R+11 partisan voting index and consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 primary after an uncontested 2024 general election, while Democrat Paul Nolley emerged as the nominee but trails substantially in fundraising and name recognition. The rural northern Illinois district’s voting patterns and LaHood’s established local support have kept the race noncompetitive through September 2026. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually large national midterm shift, a major late-cycle event such as a scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, or turnout and spending levels far exceeding current trajectories.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$38,710 Vol.
$38,710 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
7%
$38,710 Vol.
$38,710 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
$15,407 Vol.
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
$23,303 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Darin LaHood’s position as the Republican incumbent in Illinois’s 16th congressional district underpins the market’s strong consensus, with the seat carrying an R+11 partisan voting index and consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 primary after an uncontested 2024 general election, while Democrat Paul Nolley emerged as the nominee but trails substantially in fundraising and name recognition. The rural northern Illinois district’s voting patterns and LaHood’s established local support have kept the race noncompetitive through September 2026. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually large national midterm shift, a major late-cycle event such as a scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, or turnout and spending levels far exceeding current trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$38,710Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Darin LaHood’s position as the Republican incumbent in Illinois’s 16th congressional district underpins the market’s strong consensus, with the seat carrying an R+11 partisan voting index and consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 primary after an uncontested 2024 general election, while Democrat Paul Nolley emerged as the nominee but trails substantially in fundraising and name recognition. The rural northern Illinois district’s voting patterns and LaHood’s established local support have kept the race noncompetitive through September 2026. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually large national midterm shift, a major late-cycle event such as a scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, or turnout and spending levels far exceeding current trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,710Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Darin LaHood’s position as the Republican incumbent in Illinois’s 16th congressional district underpins the market’s strong consensus, with the seat carrying an R+11 partisan voting index and consistent Solid or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 primary after an uncontested 2024 general election, while Democrat Paul Nolley emerged as the nominee but trails substantially in fundraising and name recognition. The rural northern Illinois district’s voting patterns and LaHood’s established local support have kept the race noncompetitive through September 2026. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually large national midterm shift, a major late-cycle event such as a scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, or turnout and spending levels far exceeding current trajectories.
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