Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, now forecast to reach very strong or historic intensity by late 2026, are the main driver behind trader consensus favoring a second-hottest September on record at 85.5% implied probability. Ongoing global warmth from greenhouse gas forcing, combined with the lagged warming effects of the developing El Niño, positions September 2026 to exceed most prior years but fall short of the absolute record set in 2023 or 2024 in many datasets. Recent ECMWF ensemble runs and early-month observations project a global mean near 16.39 °C, inside historical ranges yet below the margin needed for first place. NOAA and other agencies note continued ocean heat content gains and model agreement on Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding 2.5 °C, though forecast uncertainty remains due to potential steering patterns and measurement revisions in final rankings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 82%
1st hottest 13%
3rd hottest 6.6%
4th or lower 6.4%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
13%
2nd hottest
86%
3rd hottest
7%
4th or lower
6%
2nd hottest 82%
1st hottest 13%
3rd hottest 6.6%
4th or lower 6.4%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$349 Vol.
13%
2nd hottest
$1 Vol.
86%
3rd hottest
$191 Vol.
7%
4th or lower
$250 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, now forecast to reach very strong or historic intensity by late 2026, are the main driver behind trader consensus favoring a second-hottest September on record at 85.5% implied probability. Ongoing global warmth from greenhouse gas forcing, combined with the lagged warming effects of the developing El Niño, positions September 2026 to exceed most prior years but fall short of the absolute record set in 2023 or 2024 in many datasets. Recent ECMWF ensemble runs and early-month observations project a global mean near 16.39 °C, inside historical ranges yet below the margin needed for first place. NOAA and other agencies note continued ocean heat content gains and model agreement on Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding 2.5 °C, though forecast uncertainty remains due to potential steering patterns and measurement revisions in final rankings.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$791Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, now forecast to reach very strong or historic intensity by late 2026, are the main driver behind trader consensus favoring a second-hottest September on record at 85.5% implied probability. Ongoing global warmth from greenhouse gas forcing, combined with the lagged warming effects of the developing El Niño, positions September 2026 to exceed most prior years but fall short of the absolute record set in 2023 or 2024 in many datasets. Recent ECMWF ensemble runs and early-month observations project a global mean near 16.39 °C, inside historical ranges yet below the margin needed for first place. NOAA and other agencies note continued ocean heat content gains and model agreement on Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding 2.5 °C, though forecast uncertainty remains due to potential steering patterns and measurement revisions in final rankings.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$791Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, now forecast to reach very strong or historic intensity by late 2026, are the main driver behind trader consensus favoring a second-hottest September on record at 85.5% implied probability. Ongoing global warmth from greenhouse gas forcing, combined with the lagged warming effects of the developing El Niño, positions September 2026 to exceed most prior years but fall short of the absolute record set in 2023 or 2024 in many datasets. Recent ECMWF ensemble runs and early-month observations project a global mean near 16.39 °C, inside historical ranges yet below the margin needed for first place. NOAA and other agencies note continued ocean heat content gains and model agreement on Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding 2.5 °C, though forecast uncertainty remains due to potential steering patterns and measurement revisions in final rankings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan