Google’s aggressive 2026 release cadence for Gemini models, including the mid-August launches of 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash variants, forms the main driver behind current trader sentiment on whether any Gemini system can reach 55% or higher on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31. The 2,500-question benchmark, built by domain experts to test frontier reasoning across mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities, shows Gemini 3-series models clustered around 45-48% on recent no-tools and text-only evaluations, trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable and Opus 5 entries near 59-65%. Ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4 and targeted improvements in agentic reasoning and error reduction represent the key swing factors, as HLE’s design leaves meaningful headroom while rewarding verifiable advances in specialized knowledge before year-end resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$92,724 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
90%
55%+
41%
60%+
21%
65%+
12%
70%+
4%
$92,724 Vol.
50%+
$31,006 Vol.
90%
55%+
$36,413 Vol.
41%
60%+
$15,691 Vol.
21%
65%+
$5,256 Vol.
12%
70%+
$4,358 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google’s aggressive 2026 release cadence for Gemini models, including the mid-August launches of 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash variants, forms the main driver behind current trader sentiment on whether any Gemini system can reach 55% or higher on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31. The 2,500-question benchmark, built by domain experts to test frontier reasoning across mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities, shows Gemini 3-series models clustered around 45-48% on recent no-tools and text-only evaluations, trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable and Opus 5 entries near 59-65%. Ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4 and targeted improvements in agentic reasoning and error reduction represent the key swing factors, as HLE’s design leaves meaningful headroom while rewarding verifiable advances in specialized knowledge before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$92,724Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google’s aggressive 2026 release cadence for Gemini models, including the mid-August launches of 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash variants, forms the main driver behind current trader sentiment on whether any Gemini system can reach 55% or higher on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31. The 2,500-question benchmark, built by domain experts to test frontier reasoning across mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities, shows Gemini 3-series models clustered around 45-48% on recent no-tools and text-only evaluations, trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable and Opus 5 entries near 59-65%. Ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4 and targeted improvements in agentic reasoning and error reduction represent the key swing factors, as HLE’s design leaves meaningful headroom while rewarding verifiable advances in specialized knowledge before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$92,724Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google’s aggressive 2026 release cadence for Gemini models, including the mid-August launches of 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash variants, forms the main driver behind current trader sentiment on whether any Gemini system can reach 55% or higher on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31. The 2,500-question benchmark, built by domain experts to test frontier reasoning across mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities, shows Gemini 3-series models clustered around 45-48% on recent no-tools and text-only evaluations, trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable and Opus 5 entries near 59-65%. Ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4 and targeted improvements in agentic reasoning and error reduction represent the key swing factors, as HLE’s design leaves meaningful headroom while rewarding verifiable advances in specialized knowledge before year-end resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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