Recent upward surprises in September core CPI at 0.3% month-over-month, driven by broad-based gains in services and goods including shelter components, have lifted economist estimates for the corresponding core PCE reading to a 0.32–0.36% range. Weaker-than-expected PCE-relevant items in the PPI report have since trimmed some forecasts toward 0.32%, keeping the modal outcome near the 0.3% level that currently commands the highest market-implied probability. This follows August core PCE of 0.25%, with the September figure set to influence year-over-year core inflation near 3.1%. Traders are pricing in the October 29 BEA release as the key near-term catalyst, with limited scope for last-minute data revisions to shift the distribution materially before resolution.