Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding position in California's 21st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, as reflected in trader consensus. The district carries a D+5 partisan voter index, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic. Costa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote against Republican Kyle Kirkland at 26 percent. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared with Kirkland's under $350,000, supports his established voter base and name recognition in the Central Valley. A Republican upset would require a significant late shift in turnout or national conditions capable of overcoming the district's structural lean and the incumbent's resource edge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-21 House Election Winner
CA-21 House Election Winner
$27,144 Vol.
$27,144 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Costa (D)
93%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
7%
$27,144 Vol.
$27,144 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Costa (D)
$14,977 Vol.
93%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
$12,168 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding position in California's 21st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, as reflected in trader consensus. The district carries a D+5 partisan voter index, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic. Costa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote against Republican Kyle Kirkland at 26 percent. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared with Kirkland's under $350,000, supports his established voter base and name recognition in the Central Valley. A Republican upset would require a significant late shift in turnout or national conditions capable of overcoming the district's structural lean and the incumbent's resource edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$27,144Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding position in California's 21st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, as reflected in trader consensus. The district carries a D+5 partisan voter index, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic. Costa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote against Republican Kyle Kirkland at 26 percent. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared with Kirkland's under $350,000, supports his established voter base and name recognition in the Central Valley. A Republican upset would require a significant late shift in turnout or national conditions capable of overcoming the district's structural lean and the incumbent's resource edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,144Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding position in California's 21st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, as reflected in trader consensus. The district carries a D+5 partisan voter index, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic. Costa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote against Republican Kyle Kirkland at 26 percent. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared with Kirkland's under $350,000, supports his established voter base and name recognition in the Central Valley. A Republican upset would require a significant late shift in turnout or national conditions capable of overcoming the district's structural lean and the incumbent's resource edge.
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