Josh Harder maintains a commanding lead in the CA-09 House race, with trader consensus assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory. As the Democratic incumbent, Harder secured 60.8% in the June 2 top-two primary, easily advancing alongside Republican John McBride. The district's Democratic lean, reflected in recent presidential voting margins and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters, underpins the positioning. Harder's substantial fundraising edge—over $4 million raised versus McBride's roughly $52,000—further strengthens his standing ahead of the November 3 general election. Low-probability shifts could arise from late-breaking national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout, though structural factors favor continuity.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-09 House Election Winner
CA-09 House Election Winner
$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Josh Harder (D)
94%
John McBride (R)
6%
$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Josh Harder (D)
$13,285 Vol.
94%
John McBride (R)
$7,309 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Josh Harder maintains a commanding lead in the CA-09 House race, with trader consensus assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory. As the Democratic incumbent, Harder secured 60.8% in the June 2 top-two primary, easily advancing alongside Republican John McBride. The district's Democratic lean, reflected in recent presidential voting margins and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters, underpins the positioning. Harder's substantial fundraising edge—over $4 million raised versus McBride's roughly $52,000—further strengthens his standing ahead of the November 3 general election. Low-probability shifts could arise from late-breaking national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout, though structural factors favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$20,593Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Josh Harder maintains a commanding lead in the CA-09 House race, with trader consensus assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory. As the Democratic incumbent, Harder secured 60.8% in the June 2 top-two primary, easily advancing alongside Republican John McBride. The district's Democratic lean, reflected in recent presidential voting margins and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters, underpins the positioning. Harder's substantial fundraising edge—over $4 million raised versus McBride's roughly $52,000—further strengthens his standing ahead of the November 3 general election. Low-probability shifts could arise from late-breaking national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout, though structural factors favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,593Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Josh Harder maintains a commanding lead in the CA-09 House race, with trader consensus assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory. As the Democratic incumbent, Harder secured 60.8% in the June 2 top-two primary, easily advancing alongside Republican John McBride. The district's Democratic lean, reflected in recent presidential voting margins and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters, underpins the positioning. Harder's substantial fundraising edge—over $4 million raised versus McBride's roughly $52,000—further strengthens his standing ahead of the November 3 general election. Low-probability shifts could arise from late-breaking national political realignments, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout, though structural factors favor continuity.
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