US constitutional requirements for admitting new states demand congressional approval and Venezuelan consent through formal processes that have not been initiated, while Venezuela’s interim leadership has repeatedly affirmed sovereignty and rejected annexation following the US military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro earlier in 2026. Traders see near-certain resolution to “No” by the December 31, 2026 deadline because no referendum, treaty, or legislative path exists, and current US engagement centers on oil production stakes and diplomatic cooperation rather than statehood. Even with heightened bilateral influence, the absence of domestic support in Venezuela or congressional momentum makes formal incorporation by year-end implausible, though late-session legislative shifts or unforeseen bilateral agreements could theoretically alter the trajectory.