Ongoing air and naval strikes targeting Iranian military assets in the Strait of Hormuz region, combined with intermittent technical negotiations over nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and maritime access, have sustained U.S. pressure without shifting toward large-scale ground operations. Following the February 2026 strikes and June memorandum of understanding, both sides have exchanged limited fire while pursuing diplomacy through mediators like Qatar, with U.S. officials emphasizing air campaigns and economic measures over troop deployments. Experts note that a full invasion would require hundreds of thousands of forces and face significant logistical and political barriers, aligning with the current trader consensus reflected in the 85.5% probability for no invasion before 2027. Upcoming talks and congressional oversight timelines could influence any escalation path.