Strong bilateral security cooperation, including Mexico’s unanimous Senate approval of 139 U.S. troops for limited joint training exercises in Chihuahua through September 2026, underpins trader expectations that no invasion will occur. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly ruled out any foreign military intervention on Mexican soil, emphasizing sovereignty and coordinated efforts against cartels rather than unilateral action. Ongoing tensions over fentanyl trafficking, cartel designations, and border enforcement have produced threats of limited strikes or pressure but no authorization or planning for large-scale ground operations. A full invasion would encounter prohibitive diplomatic, legal, and domestic political barriers in both countries. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from failed cooperation or a major cross-border incident prompting broader U.S. military involvement, though such outcomes remain remote given current institutional constraints.