Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, personnel, and equipment as of September 2026, with forces making only incremental advances amid heavy casualties and a widening federal budget deficit. Putin has repeatedly rejected meaningful diplomatic compromises during recent U.S. envoy visits and phone calls, instead prioritizing maximalist territorial goals in Donetsk and elsewhere while directing strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Western intelligence assessments note no verified preparations for a new conventional invasion of another country this year, though limited provocations against NATO states remain a monitored risk. High Russian losses exceeding 1.5 million personnel since 2022, combined with recruitment shortfalls and production focused on sustaining the current front, underpin the 93.5% trader-implied probability against an additional invasion before year-end.