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राजनीति·पुतिन

रूस द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?

icon for रूस द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?
राजनीति·पुतिन

रूस द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?

$6,230,936 वॉल्यूम

30 सित, 2026
Polymarket

$6,230,936 वॉल्यूम

Polymarket

30 सितंबर, 2026

$158,561 वॉल्यूम

1%

31 दिसंबर, 2026

$120,048 वॉल्यूम

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing despite withdrawing from the CTBT in 2023 and reported infrastructure upgrades at the Novaya Zemlya site, where activity includes construction and readiness statements but no verified detonations. Recent developments center on non-explosive trials of delivery systems, such as Sarmat ICBM launches and Khabarovsk submarine sea trials tied to Poseidon, alongside diplomatic engagements like the CIA director’s Moscow visit and UN escalation warnings. Trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for tests by late 2026 stems from this pattern of signaling without crossing into explosive yields, with any shift likely requiring explicit policy announcements, reciprocal U.S. or Chinese actions, or major geopolitical triggers within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$6,230,936
समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027
बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

रिज़ॉल्वर

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing despite withdrawing from the CTBT in 2023 and reported infrastructure upgrades at the Novaya Zemlya site, where activity includes construction and readiness statements but no verified detonations. Recent developments center on non-explosive trials of delivery systems, such as Sarmat ICBM launches and Khabarovsk submarine sea trials tied to Poseidon, alongside diplomatic engagements like the CIA director’s Moscow visit and UN escalation warnings. Trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for tests by late 2026 stems from this pattern of signaling without crossing into explosive yields, with any shift likely requiring explicit policy announcements, reciprocal U.S. or Chinese actions, or major geopolitical triggers within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$6,230,936
समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027
बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

रिज़ॉल्वर

0x65070BE91...

संबंधित

icon for क्या अमेरिका 31 दिसंबर 2026 तक परमाणु हथियार का परीक्षण करेगा?

क्या अमेरिका 31 दिसंबर 2026 तक परमाणु हथियार का परीक्षण करेगा?

6%
हाँ
icon for क्या ईरान 2027 से पहले परमाणु परीक्षण करेगा?

क्या ईरान 2027 से पहले परमाणु परीक्षण करेगा?

5%
हाँ
icon for Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

6%

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अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न

"रूस द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?" Polymarket पर 6 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, 31 दिसंबर, 2026 6% (6¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है, उसके बाद 30 सितंबर, 2026 1% पर है।

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"रूस द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 6 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।

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