Recent opinion polls and seat projections for Spain’s November 29 snap general election show the Partido Popular leading with roughly 30–32 percent, followed by the PSOE at 26–28 percent and Vox at 18–20 percent. Aggregators place PP + Vox between 180 and 205 seats in the 350-seat Congress in the large majority of simulations, well above the 176 needed for an absolute majority. This positioning stems from Vox’s sustained gains since the 2023 election and the left’s inability to consolidate sufficient support after the housing-decree defeats that prompted the early vote. With four weeks remaining, these consistent polling trends underpin the elevated trader probability for a PP + Vox majority.