Traders assign former President Barack Obama a 97% implied probability of avoiding arrest before 2027, driven by the complete absence of active federal or state investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against him. No announcements from the Department of Justice, congressional committees, or law enforcement agencies signal any impending action, consistent with historical precedent that former U.S. presidents face arrest only in exceptional circumstances. With roughly four months left in 2026, the resolution window remains short and stable. Late-breaking developments such as newly disclosed evidence in legacy matters or abrupt shifts in prosecutorial priorities could theoretically alter the outlook, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
3% संभावना
$21,947 वॉल्यूम
$21,947 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
3% संभावना
$21,947 वॉल्यूम
$21,947 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign former President Barack Obama a 97% implied probability of avoiding arrest before 2027, driven by the complete absence of active federal or state investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against him. No announcements from the Department of Justice, congressional committees, or law enforcement agencies signal any impending action, consistent with historical precedent that former U.S. presidents face arrest only in exceptional circumstances. With roughly four months left in 2026, the resolution window remains short and stable. Late-breaking developments such as newly disclosed evidence in legacy matters or abrupt shifts in prosecutorial priorities could theoretically alter the outlook, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$21,947समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign former President Barack Obama a 97% implied probability of avoiding arrest before 2027, driven by the complete absence of active federal or state investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against him. No announcements from the Department of Justice, congressional committees, or law enforcement agencies signal any impending action, consistent with historical precedent that former U.S. presidents face arrest only in exceptional circumstances. With roughly four months left in 2026, the resolution window remains short and stable. Late-breaking developments such as newly disclosed evidence in legacy matters or abrupt shifts in prosecutorial priorities could theoretically alter the outlook, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$21,947समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Traders assign former President Barack Obama a 97% implied probability of avoiding arrest before 2027, driven by the complete absence of active federal or state investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings against him. No announcements from the Department of Justice, congressional committees, or law enforcement agencies signal any impending action, consistent with historical precedent that former U.S. presidents face arrest only in exceptional circumstances. With roughly four months left in 2026, the resolution window remains short and stable. Late-breaking developments such as newly disclosed evidence in legacy matters or abrupt shifts in prosecutorial priorities could theoretically alter the outlook, though current conditions show no such catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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