Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in the market because the Assembly of Experts elected him Supreme Leader in March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike that opened the current conflict. He secured the required two-thirds majority amid rapid consolidation by the clerical establishment and Revolutionary Guard, who viewed him as the candidate best positioned to ensure continuity and hardline control. Despite Mojtaba’s prolonged public absence and reported injuries from the same attack, Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have repeatedly affirmed he remains in effective command, issuing directives through written statements and intermediaries. Traders assign low probability to alternatives such as a leadership council, regime transition, or figures like Reza Pahlavi because no verified development has displaced Mojtaba’s institutional backing or triggered formal succession procedures by September 2026. The market’s resolution hinges on who exercises de facto authority over the armed forces and state institutions on December 31, 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
मोज़तबा खामनेई 84.7%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 4.4%
रज़ा पहलवी 2.9%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद 1.3%
$39,365,160 वॉल्यूम
$39,365,160 वॉल्यूम
मोज़तबा खामनेई
85%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
4%
रज़ा पहलवी
3%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
1%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
1%
हसन रूहानी
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
<1%
अहमद वाहिदी
<1%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
<1%
हसन खोमेनी
<1%
अब्बास अराक़ची
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
मसूद रजवी
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
मरीयम रजवी
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
मोज़तबा खामनेई 84.7%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं 4.4%
रज़ा पहलवी 2.9%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद 1.3%
$39,365,160 वॉल्यूम
$39,365,160 वॉल्यूम
मोज़तबा खामनेई
85%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
4%
रज़ा पहलवी
3%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
1%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
1%
हसन रूहानी
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
<1%
अहमद वाहिदी
<1%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
<1%
हसन खोमेनी
<1%
अब्बास अराक़ची
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
मसूद रजवी
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
मरीयम रजवी
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in the market because the Assembly of Experts elected him Supreme Leader in March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike that opened the current conflict. He secured the required two-thirds majority amid rapid consolidation by the clerical establishment and Revolutionary Guard, who viewed him as the candidate best positioned to ensure continuity and hardline control. Despite Mojtaba’s prolonged public absence and reported injuries from the same attack, Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have repeatedly affirmed he remains in effective command, issuing directives through written statements and intermediaries. Traders assign low probability to alternatives such as a leadership council, regime transition, or figures like Reza Pahlavi because no verified development has displaced Mojtaba’s institutional backing or triggered formal succession procedures by September 2026. The market’s resolution hinges on who exercises de facto authority over the armed forces and state institutions on December 31, 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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