The closely matched probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September through December 2026 FOMC meetings reflect trader uncertainty driven by conflicting inflation and labor-market signals. Recent CPI and PCE readings have shown persistent core inflation above target, supporting expectations for at least one hike, while softening nonfarm payrolls and rising unemployment claims have increased the odds of pauses. Market-implied odds price in a baseline of gradual tightening, yet the narrow spread between Hike–Hike–Hike and Hike–Pause–Hike scenarios highlights sensitivity to upcoming data releases and Fed communications. Key swing factors include the September employment report, October CPI, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk-asset volatility that could alter the Fed’s dot-plot guidance at the December meeting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयातीन बार वृद्धि (हाइक–हाइक–हाइक) 35%
वृद्धि–विराम–वृद्धि 30%
बढ़ोतरी–बढ़ोतरी–विराम 18%
बढ़ोतरी–ठहराव–ठहराव 13%
$93,670 वॉल्यूम
$93,670 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
वृद्धि–विराम–वृद्धि
30%
बढ़ोतरी–ठहराव–ठहराव
13%
तीन बार वृद्धि (हाइक–हाइक–हाइक)
35%
बढ़ोतरी–बढ़ोतरी–विराम
18%
अन्य
4%
तीन बार वृद्धि (हाइक–हाइक–हाइक) 35%
वृद्धि–विराम–वृद्धि 30%
बढ़ोतरी–बढ़ोतरी–विराम 18%
बढ़ोतरी–ठहराव–ठहराव 13%
$93,670 वॉल्यूम
$93,670 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
वृद्धि–विराम–वृद्धि
$7,783 वॉल्यूम
30%
बढ़ोतरी–ठहराव–ठहराव
$18,644 वॉल्यूम
13%
तीन बार वृद्धि (हाइक–हाइक–हाइक)
$17,880 वॉल्यूम
35%
बढ़ोतरी–बढ़ोतरी–विराम
$21,915 वॉल्यूम
18%
अन्य
$5,063 वॉल्यूम
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe closely matched probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September through December 2026 FOMC meetings reflect trader uncertainty driven by conflicting inflation and labor-market signals. Recent CPI and PCE readings have shown persistent core inflation above target, supporting expectations for at least one hike, while softening nonfarm payrolls and rising unemployment claims have increased the odds of pauses. Market-implied odds price in a baseline of gradual tightening, yet the narrow spread between Hike–Hike–Hike and Hike–Pause–Hike scenarios highlights sensitivity to upcoming data releases and Fed communications. Key swing factors include the September employment report, October CPI, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk-asset volatility that could alter the Fed’s dot-plot guidance at the December meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$93,670समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe closely matched probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September through December 2026 FOMC meetings reflect trader uncertainty driven by conflicting inflation and labor-market signals. Recent CPI and PCE readings have shown persistent core inflation above target, supporting expectations for at least one hike, while softening nonfarm payrolls and rising unemployment claims have increased the odds of pauses. Market-implied odds price in a baseline of gradual tightening, yet the narrow spread between Hike–Hike–Hike and Hike–Pause–Hike scenarios highlights sensitivity to upcoming data releases and Fed communications. Key swing factors include the September employment report, October CPI, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk-asset volatility that could alter the Fed’s dot-plot guidance at the December meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$93,670समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September through December 2026 FOMC meetings reflect trader uncertainty driven by conflicting inflation and labor-market signals. Recent CPI and PCE readings have shown persistent core inflation above target, supporting expectations for at least one hike, while softening nonfarm payrolls and rising unemployment claims have increased the odds of pauses. Market-implied odds price in a baseline of gradual tightening, yet the narrow spread between Hike–Hike–Hike and Hike–Pause–Hike scenarios highlights sensitivity to upcoming data releases and Fed communications. Key swing factors include the September employment report, October CPI, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk-asset volatility that could alter the Fed’s dot-plot guidance at the December meeting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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