Strong U.S. August jobs report raises odds of Fed rate hike in September

25 bps increase surges to 56%28%

The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, well above expectations, signaling a robust labor market. This data increased market-implied odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, countering earlier signals for a hold and reflecting the Fed's sensitivity to labor market strength in policy decisions.

August jobs report shows softer employment growth

No change drops to 65%7%

The August jobs report released on September 4 indicated softer employment growth, which reduced the urgency for a Fed rate hike and supported market expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September.

August US Employment Situation report shows moderate job growth and steady unemployment

25 bps increase jumps to 51%14%

The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market. This data supported the case for a possible rate hike but also allowed for a hold, contributing to market uncertainty ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Fed Governor Waller speech suggests possible rate increase at September meeting

25 bps increase drops to 52%5%

Governor Waller's speech highlighted that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and suggested that a rate increase might be appropriate at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, reinforcing market expectations for a 25 bps hike.

Fed official signals possible rate hike at September FOMC meeting

25 bps increase surges to 54%18%

On September 3, 2026, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate at the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reinforcing market expectations for a 25 bps increase. This statement contributed to the rise in the 25 bps increase option price and decline in the no change option.

Fed Vice Chair Christopher Waller signals possible rate hike at September meeting

25 bps increase jumps to 54%12%

In early September, Vice Chair Waller indicated that a rate increase might be appropriate at the upcoming FOMC meeting, reinforcing market pricing for a 25 bps hike and contributing to the rise in that outcome's probability.

Federal Reserve official signals possible rate hike at September meeting

25 bps increase jumps to 50%12%

On September 3, 2026, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that while inflation remains above target, recent data suggest a rate increase may be appropriate at the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting, influencing market expectations for a 25 bps hike.

Fed Governor Waller speech highlights inflation above target and potential September rate hike

25 bps increase jumps to 47%8%

Governor Christopher Waller delivered a speech on September 3, 2026, emphasizing that inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed's 2% goal and suggesting that a rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting may be appropriate. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 basis point hike.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicates August inflation data will decide September rate move

No change dips to 45%4%

Governor Waller stated that he would support holding rates steady if August inflation data showed continued easing, but a strong inflation reading could prompt a hike. His comments tempered market expectations and created a near even split between a hold and a 25 bps hike.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller signals support for holding rates steady in September

No change jumps to 75%12%

Waller stated that current interest rates may be sufficient to cool inflation, backing a hold at the upcoming September FOMC meeting. His comments shifted market odds toward no change, reflecting uncertainty between a hold and a 25 bps hike.

Rising geopolitical tensions keep inflation elevated, pressuring Fed policy outlook

25 bps increase surges to 51%23%

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and resulting energy price shocks maintained inflationary pressures, limiting the Fed's ability to ease policy and increasing market expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting.

Market shifts toward expecting a September 2026 Fed rate hike

25 bps increase surges to 51%18%

As the September FOMC meeting approached, market pricing indicated roughly a two-thirds probability of a 25 basis point rate increase, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed signals from July.

Rising inflation and hawkish Fed signals boost odds of September rate hike

25 bps increase jumps to 50%6%

In early September 2026, persistent inflation and hawkish signals from Fed officials increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, reflected in rising probabilities and shifting investor sentiment.

Markets price in increased odds of September rate hike amid strong jobs report

25 bps increase surges to 53%25%

By early September, markets had shifted to roughly a two-thirds probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, driven by a strong August jobs report and persistent inflation concerns. This was reflected in rising prices for the 25 bps increase outcome.

Federal Reserve maintains rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid ongoing inflation and economic growth

25 bps increase surges to 60%19%

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in late August, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite elevated inflation and solid economic activity. The decision, supported by a 9-3 vote with dissenters favoring a hike, maintained market expectations for a potential 25 bps increase in the upcoming September meeting.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and economic growth

In late August, the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite ongoing inflation above target and solid economic activity. The decision followed the July meeting and preceded the September FOMC, with three dissenters again favoring a hike, underscoring internal Fed divisions.

Robust August employment report boosts expectations for September Fed rate hike

25 bps increase jumps to 54%11%

Strong August employment data showing 162,000 new jobs and steady unemployment at 4.1% led UBS and other financial institutions to revise forecasts, now expecting two 25 basis point rate hikes in 2026, starting in September. This bolstered market confidence in a 25 bps increase at the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Persistent Inflation and Global Uncertainty

No change dips to 50%4%

On August 31, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite ongoing inflation above target and geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters again favoring a rate hike, keeping markets attentive to a possible September increase.

Fed Chair Warsh signals hawkish stance at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

25 bps increase surges to 59%35%

Chairman Warsh's keynote speech at Jackson Hole raised market expectations for a 25 bps rate hike in September by emphasizing inflation risks and a less predictable forward guidance approach, causing a notable increase in the probability of a September hike.

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty

No change drops to 41%9%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in late August, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance in first Jackson Hole speech

25 bps increase jumps to 45%8%

At the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first keynote speech, signaling a firm stance against inflation and supporting the possibility of future rate hikes. This speech increased market expectations for a September rate increase.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid political and economic pressures

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in August, despite ongoing inflation above target and political pressure for cuts. The decision underscored the Fed's commitment to price stability and contributed to market expectations of a 25 bps increase in September.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish tone at Jackson Hole symposium

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech emphasizing inflation risks and the possibility of further tightening. This shifted market expectations sharply towards a 25 bps rate hike in September, increasing the probability from below 40% to nearly 60%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers hawkish keynote at Jackson Hole

25 bps increase surges to 60%25%

In his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to returning inflation to 2%, signaling that rate hikes remain on the table. His hawkish tone increased market expectations for a September rate hike above 50%.

Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech emphasizes data-driven policy and inflation fight

25 bps increase jumps to 47%14%

In his August 28 speech, Chair Warsh stressed the importance of relying on current data, maintaining the 2% inflation target, and prioritizing short-term interest rates. This reinforced market expectations for a cautious but hawkish approach, supporting the likelihood of a 25 bps hike in September.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopts cautious communication style amid policy crossroads

Kevin Warsh, who took over as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, has changed the Fed's communication approach by providing less explicit guidance on the economy and inflation, increasing market uncertainty about future rate moves ahead of the September meeting.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 sets stage for September Fed decision

25 bps increase jumps to 55%11%

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium held August 27-29, 2026, provided a platform for Federal Reserve officials and economists to discuss inflation risks and monetary policy, influencing market expectations for a possible rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.

Federal Reserve to host Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focusing on financial innovation

No change surges to 69%16%

The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium from August 27-29 is a key event where Fed officials discuss monetary policy and economic outlook, influencing market expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Anticipation of insights from this event contributed to price movements favoring no change or a modest rate increase.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers hawkish speech at Jackson Hole Symposium

25 bps increase surges to 56%25%

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium from August 27-29, 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message emphasizing inflation risks and the possibility of further rate hikes, which increased market expectations for a September increase.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focuses on financial innovation and policy implications

No change jumps to 70%11%

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where discussions on financial innovation and monetary policy implications took place. While not directly causing immediate price moves, the event shaped market expectations about the Fed's cautious approach and potential future rate decisions.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Pressure to Clarify Inflation and Rate Views

25 bps increase surges to 52%21%

On August 27, 2026, media coverage highlighted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's cautious communication style amid ongoing inflation concerns and political pressures. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and influenced the rising odds of a 25 bps rate increase at the September meeting.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focuses on financial innovation and policy implications

25 bps increase drops to 27%8%

The annual Jackson Hole Symposium brought together central bankers and policymakers to discuss financial innovation and its implications for monetary policy, influencing market expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Federal Reserve hosts Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focusing on financial innovation and policy

No change rises to 60%1%

From August 27 to 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, emphasizing financial innovation and its implications for payments and monetary policy. This event influenced market sentiment by highlighting ongoing policy considerations amid inflation and economic uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium highlights hawkish Fed stance on inflation and rates

25 bps increase surges to 50%19%

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium featured Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Kevin Warsh, emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation. This event reinforced market expectations for a September rate hike and contributed to the rising probability of a 25 bps increase.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows stronger-than-expected Q3 growth at 4.6%

25 bps increase jumps to 33%5%

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model revised its Q3 GDP growth estimate upward to 4.6%, signaling robust economic momentum. This stronger growth outlook reduced expectations for imminent rate cuts and supported market pricing for a possible 25 bps hike in September.

Second-quarter GDP revision and PCE inflation report ahead of September FOMC

25 bps increase dips to 47%2%

The upcoming revised GDP estimate and PCE inflation report on August 26 are key data points that markets are watching closely to assess economic momentum and inflation trends ahead of the September FOMC meeting, influencing rate hike expectations.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Holds Steady in July

25 bps increase surges to 53%25%

The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.2% in July 2026, maintaining an annual rate of 3.7%, unchanged from June. This steady inflation reading contributed to market expectations of a likely 25 bps rate hike in September to address persistent inflation pressures.

July PCE inflation data released amid mixed economic signals

The release of July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on August 26 showed inflation remaining elevated but with some signs of moderation, contributing to market uncertainty about the Fed's next move and supporting a balanced view between a rate hold and a 25 bps increase.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation

No change jumps to 68%5%

On August 24, 2026, the Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75% due to ongoing inflation pressures and a solid economy, with three dissenters again favoring a hike. This reinforced market expectations for a potential September increase.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady in August 2026 Despite Inflation and Global Uncertainty

No change drops to 56%6%

On August 24, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. Three policymakers dissented, favoring a 25 bps hike, underscoring ongoing inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve maintains rates amid persistent inflation and economic growth

No change jumps to 68%5%

On August 24, 2026, the Fed reiterated its stance by keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks. The statement reaffirmed commitment to price stability, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike, sustaining market expectations for a September increase.

Fed officials signal possible rate hikes if inflation persists

25 bps increase surges to 41%16%

Minutes from a recent Fed meeting indicated that many officials thought the central bank might need to raise short-term interest rates if inflation did not subside, reviving expectations of a potential 25 basis points increase. This hawkish tone caused markets to reassess the likelihood of rate hikes in September.

Rising inflation and geopolitical risks keep markets wary of Fed rate cuts

25 bps increase surges to 56%20%

In August 2026, ongoing inflation pressures driven by Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices, combined with hawkish Fed signals, led markets to reduce expectations for rate cuts and price in a higher probability of a 25 basis points increase at the September meeting.

Fed Minutes Reveal Officials' Concerns Over Inflation and Potential Rate Hike

25 bps increase surges to 53%25%

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting showed that many Fed officials believed further policy tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline. The committee noted that financial conditions might not be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the 2% target, reinforcing expectations for a possible rate hike in September.

Federal Reserve releases July FOMC minutes showing divided committee

25 bps increase surges to 38%22%

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting revealed a split among policymakers, with three dissenters favoring a rate hike. The document highlighted ongoing inflation concerns and uncertainty about the economic outlook, which influenced market pricing toward a potential September increase.

FOMC minutes reveal split decision and inflation concerns ahead of September meeting

25 bps increase jumps to 65%5%

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting highlighted a split among policymakers, with three voting for a rate hike due to inflation risks. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to price stability, signaling a likely 25 basis point increase in September.

FOMC minutes reveal hawkish tone, inflation risks remain elevated

No change jumps to 59%5%

The release of the August 19 FOMC minutes showed that several participants favored raising rates if inflation did not decline, emphasizing upside risks from supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. This hawkish tone supported market pricing for no change or a 25 bps increase in September, while diminishing expectations for rate cuts.

Release of July FOMC minutes reveals committee split and dissent details

25 bps increase surges to 38%22%

The publication of the July FOMC minutes on August 19 provided market participants with detailed insights into the committee's divided stance on interest rates, reinforcing expectations for a potential 25 bps hike in September and causing shifts in market pricing.

Federal Reserve announces five task forces to review monetary policy practices

The Fed's announcement of task forces to examine monetary policy and communication signaled a potential shift in policy approach, contributing to market uncertainty and influencing expectations for future rate moves including September.

Release of July FOMC meeting minutes reveals three dissenters favored rate hike

25 bps increase surges to 38%22%

The minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting showed a closer split than the statement suggested, with three members voting for an immediate hike and several others favoring a 25 basis points increase. This reinforced market pricing for a September hike.

Federal Reserve releases minutes of July 28-29 FOMC meeting

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting detailed the divided views among policymakers, including the three dissenters favoring a rate hike. The minutes highlighted ongoing inflation concerns and the Fed's readiness to adjust policy, reinforcing market expectations for a September increase.

Federal Reserve announces task forces to enhance monetary policy effectiveness

25 bps increase rises to 36%3%

On August 19, 2026, the Fed announced five task forces to examine key areas of monetary policy conduct, signaling a proactive approach to policy challenges. This development supported market views of a Fed prepared to adjust rates as needed, favoring a 25 bps increase.

Market expectations surge for 25 bps Fed rate hike in September

25 bps increase surges to 56%20%

Following economic data and Fed communications, market prices for a 25 basis points increase surged to over 50%, reflecting growing consensus that the Fed would raise rates at the September meeting to address inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Elevated Inflation and Economic Uncertainty

No change rises to 66%3%

In mid-August, the Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures partly due to supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. The decision supported the view that the Fed would likely raise rates in September if inflation remains elevated.

JPMorgan Chase warns of economic risks amid calls for Fed rate cuts

25 bps decrease dips to 1%3%

JPMorgan Chase released a report highlighting economic vulnerabilities and advocating for a 100 bps rate cut to support employment and stabilize markets. This influenced market sentiment towards potential rate decreases, though the Fed remained cautious.

Federal Reserve maintains steady rates amid solid economic growth and inflation concerns

No change dips to 72%3%

On August 15, the Fed reiterated its commitment to price stability while maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The economy was described as expanding at a solid pace despite elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, particularly energy prices. The Fed's stance supported market expectations of no change in the near term but left open the possibility of a September hike.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks

No change jumps to 68%5%

On August 15, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic growth despite elevated inflation and global uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and setting the stage for a possible September rate increase.

Market odds shift toward no change as inflation remains elevated but growth slows

No change jumps to 75%6%

By mid-August, markets increasingly priced in a hold for September, reflecting persistent inflation above target but signs of economic cooling. This was influenced by mixed data and Fed officials' cautious messaging, leading to a near-even split between no change and a 25 bps hike.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflation and Global Uncertainty

No change jumps to 76%13%

On August 12, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth despite inflation above target and global uncertainties including the Middle East conflict. This reinforced the market's confidence in the no change outcome for September.

Federal Reserve reiterates commitment to price stability, holds rates steady

No change jumps to 75%13%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth and persistent inflation above target. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike. This reaffirmed market expectations for no change in September.

July CPI inflation data confirms persistent inflation at 3.4%, sustaining hike expectations

25 bps increase rises to 49%4%

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released in mid-August showed inflation steady at 3.4%, above the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation supported market expectations for a possible rate hike at the September meeting.

July Consumer Price Index shows modest inflation rise, easing pressure on Fed

No change jumps to 62%6%

The July CPI rose 0.1% monthly with an annual rate of 3.4%, slightly easing inflation pressures but still above the Fed's 2% target. This modest increase suggested the Fed might hold rates steady in September, reinforcing the market's 'No change' pricing.

US Consumer Price Index Shows Persistent Inflation Above Target

The release of the US CPI data on August 12 showed inflation remaining elevated, reinforcing concerns about the Fed's inflation target and supporting expectations for a possible rate increase in September. This data likely influenced market pricing toward the 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes.

July CPI inflation report shows headline inflation at 3.4%, easing slightly

No change surges to 75%16%

The August 12 release of July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target but indicating a slight easing. This report added complexity to the Fed's decision-making, balancing persistent inflation against signs of moderation.

July CPI report shows inflation easing to 3.4%

No change jumps to 69%10%

The July 2026 Consumer Price Index report indicated a slight easing of inflation to 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June. This moderation, alongside a softening labor market, created a complex policy environment for the Fed ahead of the September meeting, supporting market expectations of no rate change.

July CPI inflation report indicates easing price pressures but inflation remains above target

25 bps increase dips to 32%1%

The July CPI report showed a slight decline in inflation rates, suggesting some easing of price pressures. However, inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target, sustaining expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting to maintain price stability.

July CPI inflation report shows easing but inflation remains above target

25 bps increase surges to 48%15%

The August 12 release of the July CPI inflation report indicated some easing in consumer price inflation, but core inflation remained elevated. This mixed inflation data contributed to market expectations that the Fed would likely raise rates by 25 bps in September to continue combating inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve Officials Signal Possible Further Rate Hikes Amid Persistent Inflation

25 bps increase surges to 52%15%

In mid-August 2026, Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation remaining above target and indicated that further rate increases could be necessary. This hawkish tone caused a reassessment in markets, boosting the probability of a 25 bps increase and reducing expectations for no change or rate cuts.

July CPI data shows easing inflation, supporting Fed's hold on rates

No change jumps to 54%13%

The July Consumer Price Index release indicated a cooling in both headline and core inflation, reducing immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. This data reinforced market expectations for the Fed to maintain the current rate range in September, contributing to the rise in the 'No change' price and decline in rate cut probabilities.

Rising US mortgage rates and job losses signal economic strain ahead of September Fed meeting

Reports in August highlighted 23,000 jobs lost in July and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.69%, indicating economic strain. These developments increased market speculation about a potential Fed rate hike in September to address inflation and economic risks.

Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates steady at 4.35% amid global uncertainty

The RBA's decision to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% on August 11 reflected a global environment of cautious monetary policy, which influenced market sentiment and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes in September. This contributed to the stabilization of the 'No change' outcome in the Fed market.

Political pressure mounts as President Trump calls for aggressive Fed rate cuts

No change jumps to 67%11%

President Trump publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and commitment to data-driven policy, which supported market confidence in no change for the September meeting.

Federal Reserve interest rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% as markets await September decision

25 bps increase jumps to 44%5%

As of early August, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with markets pricing in a significant probability of a 25 basis point hike at the upcoming September meeting. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continued to influence expectations for monetary policy tightening.

Market Expectations Shift Toward 25 Basis Point Rate Increase Ahead of September Meeting

25 bps increase surges to 42%18%

In early August, market sentiment shifted with increasing expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed communications. This was reflected in rising market prices for the 25 bps increase outcome and declining probabilities for no change.

Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Expectations of September Rate Hike

25 bps increase drops to 31%8%

In early August, persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and renewed geopolitical tensions, especially the U.S.-Iran conflict affecting energy prices, led investors to price in a 67% probability of a 25 basis points rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. The Fed's hawkish signals and economic data supported this shift in market sentiment.

July jobs data shows softer hiring, inflation forecast remains elevated

No change jumps to 49%9%

The July 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed weaker-than-expected job growth, with new jobs below consensus forecasts. The Federal Reserve's August inflation forecast projected persistent PCE inflation at 3.6%, signaling ongoing inflation risks. These data points contributed to market caution and supported expectations of a Fed pause in September.

July jobs report shows 23,000 job losses, raising recession concerns

No change surges to 54%15%

The July employment report revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs and downward revisions to prior months, signaling labor market weakening. This mixed signal complicated the Fed's outlook, tempering expectations for aggressive rate hikes and supporting some market optimism for no change.

July jobs report shows labor market weakening with 23,000 jobs lost

No change rises to 56%4%

The July employment data revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs, signaling economic strain and influencing market expectations toward a more cautious Fed stance. This data supported the 'No change' outcome as the Fed weighed inflation risks against labor market weakness.

US Federal Reserve reaffirms hold on rates amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns

No change jumps to 71%8%

In early August, the Federal Reserve reiterated its stance to keep rates steady due to ongoing elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, including energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The Fed emphasized its commitment to price stability while acknowledging solid economic growth and labor market conditions.

July jobs report shows labor market weakening, shifting Fed expectations

25 bps increase jumps to 40%9%

The July jobs report released on August 7 showed a decline of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. This data contributed to market reassessment of the Fed's likely September decision, increasing expectations for a possible rate hold or modest hike.

July employment report shows labor market weakening, adding uncertainty to Fed rate path

25 bps increase drops to 49%11%

The July jobs report revealed a decline in nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in unemployment, reinforcing a cooling labor market. This mixed signal contributed to market volatility and tempered expectations for aggressive Fed hikes, though a 25 bps increase remained favored.

July jobs report shows weakening labor market, influencing Fed expectations

The July jobs report revealed a decline in nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in unemployment, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market and affecting market views on the Fed's potential September decision.

US Economy Shows Strain with Job Losses and Rising Borrowing Costs Ahead of September Fed Vote

25 bps increase jumps to 35%7%

Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates heightened market uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting, briefly increasing expectations for a 25 bps rate hike, reflected in a temporary price rise for that outcome.

US economy shows signs of strain amid rising borrowing costs and job losses

25 bps increase plunges to 28%16%

In early August, reports indicated the US economy was facing challenges with 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates averaging 6.69%. These developments increased market speculation about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in September, contributing to shifts in market expectations and currency valuations.

Rising inflation and geopolitical tensions sustain rate hike expectations

25 bps increase drops to 28%9%

In early August 2026, ongoing inflation pressures driven by elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, including the Middle East conflict, maintained market expectations for a potential 25 bps rate increase in September. This contributed to fluctuations in the probabilities for 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes.

Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Risks Keep Fed Rate Hike Expectations High Ahead of September

25 bps increase surges to 53%25%

In August 2026, despite no FOMC meeting, ongoing inflation concerns driven by elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict, maintained market anticipation of a rate hike at the September meeting. Economic data releases and Fed communications during this period reinforced expectations for tightening monetary policy.

Federal Reserve reiterates commitment to price stability amid elevated inflation and global uncertainty

No change jumps to 71%8%

On August 6, the Fed reaffirmed its stance to maintain rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% citing solid economic growth despite inflationary pressures from energy prices and geopolitical risks, supporting market expectations of no immediate change but potential hikes later in the year.

US economy shows signs of strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs

No change surges to 55%16%

Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and higher mortgage rates raised concerns about economic growth, influencing market sentiment ahead of the September Fed meeting. These factors supported expectations that the Fed would likely keep rates steady to monitor economic conditions.

US economy shows resilience with steady job gains amid inflation concerns

On August 6, 2026, reports indicated solid job gains and stable unemployment despite inflation remaining above target, supporting the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy. This economic backdrop maintained market expectations for a possible rate hike in September rather than cuts or no change.

Softening labor market and high mortgage rates weigh on economy ahead of September Fed meeting

No change rises to 54%4%

July jobs data showed 23,000 jobs lost and mortgage rates remained high at 6.69%, raising concerns about economic strain. These developments influenced market expectations for the Fed's September decision, with inflation and geopolitical risks still in focus.

US mortgage rates rise to 6.69% amid economic strain and inflation concerns

25 bps increase rises to 31%1%

Mortgage rates climbed to 6.69% as of early August 2026, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and economic strain including job losses. This environment contributed to market expectations of a Fed rate hike in September to combat inflation.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%

No change jumps to 61%12%

On August 5, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged, citing solid economic growth despite inflation remaining above target and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. This reinforced market expectations for a potential September rate hike.

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions

No change surges to 74%18%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in early August, citing solid economic growth despite elevated inflation and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The decision supported the view that rates would remain higher for longer, sustaining market expectations for a possible September hike.

Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates Amid Elevated Inflation and Economic Growth

No change surges to 56%17%

The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in early August, citing solid economic growth despite global uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures, partly due to the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a rate hike due to inflation concerns.

US Economy Shows Signs of Strain Amid Rising Borrowing Costs and Job Losses

25 bps increase plunges to 25%20%

In early August, reports indicated 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates near 6.69%, highlighting economic strain. These developments increased market anticipation of a Fed rate hike in September to combat inflation and stabilize the economy.

US economy shows strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs ahead of September Fed meeting

25 bps increase rises to 32%4%

In early August, reports indicated 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates near 6.69%, signaling economic strain. These developments heightened market anticipation of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as inflation remained elevated and geopolitical tensions persisted, influencing market expectations for tightening monetary policy.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook speech highlights economic outlook and inflation concerns

Governor Cook's speech in early August emphasized ongoing inflation challenges and economic uncertainties, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach and supporting the market's growing expectation of a September rate hike.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady in July amid inflation concerns

No change rises to 52%4%

Following the July FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, assessing inflation trends and economic outlook. The decision reflected a cautious approach with inflation still above the 2% goal and a stable labor market.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook signals cautious approach amid economic uncertainty

25 bps increase rises to 41%4%

On August 5, 2026, Governor Lisa D. Cook delivered a speech discussing the economic outlook, signaling a cautious Fed stance amid inflation and geopolitical risks. This contributed to mixed market expectations but supported the possibility of a moderate rate increase.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers speech on economic outlook

Governor Lisa Cook's speech on August 5 provided insights into the economic outlook, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Such communications contributed to market reassessment of the Fed's policy path, supporting expectations of a possible September rate increase.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook discusses economic outlook amid inflation concerns

25 bps increase surges to 51%18%

Governor Cook's speech highlighted ongoing inflation pressures and economic uncertainties, reinforcing market views that the Fed may need to raise rates to achieve price stability, contributing to increased expectations of a 25 bps hike in September.

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5–3.75% amid inflation and global uncertainty

No change surges to 63%18%

On August 5, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, emphasizing the economy's solid growth despite inflation remaining above target and geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters advocating for a rate hike due to inflation concerns.

Treasury report highlights hawkish Fed outlook amid inflation and geopolitical tensions

25 bps increase jumps to 37%11%

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee reported a more hawkish Fed outlook with increased inflation projections and potential rate hikes, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated energy prices, contributing to market uncertainty ahead of September.

Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference shakes market confidence, Treasury yields rise

25 bps increase jumps to 37%6%

After the July 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Warsh’s contradictory and confident remarks during the press conference unsettled markets, causing Treasury yields to jump to multi-year highs and increasing expectations for a September rate hike.

Markets price in 72% probability of no rate change in September 2026

Market data showed a strong expectation for the Fed to hold rates steady in September, reflecting uncertainty amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The low probability of cuts indicated persistent inflation concerns.

Market Data Shows Increased Probability of September Rate Hike

25 bps increase jumps to 56%14%

Following the July FOMC meeting, interest rate futures indicated a 67.2% probability of a 25 basis points hike in September, reflecting investor expectations of tightening due to persistent inflation. This market sentiment contributed to the price increase for the '25 bps increase' outcome and decline in the 'No change' option.

FOMC votes 9-3 to hold rates steady amid inflation concerns

No change surges to 63%20%

The FOMC's decision to hold rates steady with some dissenters voting for an increase reflected ongoing inflation worries, initially boosting confidence in no change but also increasing uncertainty about future hikes.

July ISM Manufacturing Index rises to 55.6, signaling economic expansion

No change jumps to 63%11%

The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased to 55.6 in July, indicating sustained growth in the manufacturing sector. This strong data prompted markets to reassess the Fed's policy path, reducing expectations for an immediate September hike but supporting a higher rate outlook later in 2026.

Fed Chair Warsh's cautious comments shake market confidence, bond yields rise

No change jumps to 49%10%

Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh's guarded and somewhat contradictory remarks during the press conference led to a sell-off in bonds and a rise in Treasury yields, reflecting market skepticism about the Fed's future rate path and reinforcing expectations of a September hike.

Fed Chair Warsh's guarded communication shakes market confidence

25 bps increase surges to 45%20%

Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh's press conference was perceived as contradictory and overly confident, causing bond yields to rise sharply as investors priced in higher inflation risks and a hawkish Fed stance, boosting expectations for a September rate hike.

Federal Reserve holds interest rate at 3.75% amid DOJ criminal investigation into Chair Powell

No change surges to 63%20%

The Federal Reserve paused after three consecutive rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell faced a Department of Justice criminal investigation over alleged false statements to Congress, adding political complexity but not altering the Fed's cautious monetary policy stance.

Rising Market Odds for September Rate Hike Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Concerns

25 bps increase rises to 56%3%

As of early August, market data indicated increasing probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict. This shift reflects the Fed's hawkish stance and the market's adjustment to a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment.

Markets react to Fed's July decision and geopolitical tensions easing

No change surges to 64%21%

Following the July Fed decision, markets showed volatility influenced by easing U.S.-Iran hostilities and fluctuating oil prices, which affected inflation outlooks and Fed rate expectations. This contributed to price movements favoring 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes as investors reassessed risks.

Geopolitical tensions ease as U.S.-Iran hostilities pause, easing inflation concerns

No change jumps to 53%14%

A temporary pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities in early August 2026 led to a decline in oil prices and reduced near-term inflation fears. This development contributed to market reassessment of Fed rate hike probabilities, slightly lowering the odds of aggressive tightening.

FOMC minutes reveal inflation concerns and resolve to maintain rates

No change rises to 59%3%

The July 28–29 FOMC minutes highlighted that inflation remained elevated and that the Committee was resolved to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The minutes noted supply shocks and energy price increases but emphasized the commitment to price stability, influencing market confidence in no rate change.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance, rejecting pause in rate hikes

25 bps increase surges to 41%15%

Following the July FOMC meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, describing the hold as the beginning of a story and signaling that rate hikes remain possible. This hawkish tone led markets to price in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing for the first increase.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes no tolerance for elevated inflation

25 bps increase surges to 51%25%

At his second meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh declared a firm stance against elevated inflation, reinforcing expectations for a possible rate hike in September despite the July hold. This hawkish tone influenced market pricing toward a 25 bps increase.

Market Reacts Sharply to Fed's Decision to Hold Rates Steady

25 bps increase jumps to 50%12%

Following the Fed's decision, Treasury yields spiked and stock markets fell sharply, reflecting investor uncertainty and increased expectations for future rate hikes. This market reaction contributed to the rising probability of a 25 bps increase in the September meeting.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals vigilance on inflation, holds rates steady

No change surges to 63%22%

At the July FOMC meeting, new Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the committee's decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing the Fed's readiness to act if inflation pressures persist. The meeting highlighted internal divisions with some members favoring hikes, but the overall stance was a cautious pause, influencing market pricing toward no change or a modest hike.

FOMC Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.5%–3.75% with Hawkish Tone

No change dips to 40%2%

The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to keep rates steady, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike due to inflation concerns. The statement's hawkish language caused some market volatility but ultimately reinforced the expectation of no change in September.

Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote

25 bps increase jumps to 38%13%

At the July 29 meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points increase. This division highlighted uncertainty and contributed to rising market expectations for a possible September hike.

July FOMC Meeting Minutes Show Majority Support for Maintaining Rates

25 bps increase jumps to 54%12%

Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting revealed that most participants favored keeping the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters preferring a rate hike. The discussion of inflation risks and balance sheet policy contributed to market anticipation of a moderate rate increase in September.

Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes commitment to 2% inflation target amid divided Fed

25 bps increase rises to 60%4%

During the July 29 press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability and acknowledged the divided views within the committee. His remarks reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September if inflation remains elevated.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Highlights Intense Debate and Commitment to Inflation Control

25 bps increase surges to 53%16%

Following the July 29 meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described the internal debate as a 'good family fight' and reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability, emphasizing there is no 'soft inflation target.' This communication reinforced market expectations of potential rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, influencing the rise in the 25 bps increase probability.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% with no forward guidance

25 bps increase surges to 56%18%

The July 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%. The Fed continued its policy of maintaining ample reserves and refrained from providing forward guidance, reinforcing the market's view that a modest rate hike is likely in the near future, supporting the rise in probability for a 25 bps increase in September.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged amid inflation concerns and internal dissent

No change surges to 54%15%

At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, despite three dissenting votes favoring a 25 bps hike. Inflation remained elevated due to energy price shocks from the U.S.-Iran conflict, maintaining market uncertainty but leaning toward no change or a modest increase.

Fed Chair Warsh signals ongoing 'family fight' over rate policy amid inflation and geopolitical risks

25 bps increase surges to 56%16%

Chair Kevin Warsh described internal Fed debates as a 'family fight' reflecting differing views on inflation risks and rate policy. The Fed scrapped forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about future moves. Elevated inflation driven by energy prices and Middle East tensions contributed to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Commits to Press Conferences Amid Rate Decision

No change jumps to 63%7%

Following the July 29 meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh committed to holding press conferences for the remainder of 2026, signaling transparency and ongoing communication about monetary policy. This helped markets interpret the Fed's cautious stance and hawkish outlook, affecting expectations for future rate moves.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates and announces five task forces

At the July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and announced the creation of five task forces to review monetary policy decision-making and communication, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve announces maintenance of interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%

No change jumps to 49%8%

The Fed's unanimous decision to maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65% signaled continued monetary policy caution ahead of the September meeting, reinforcing expectations of no immediate rate hikes or cuts.

Fed Chair Warsh commits to press conferences amid market volatility

No change surges to 68%15%

Following the July meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh committed to continuing press conferences for the remainder of 2026, aiming to improve communication amid internal divisions and market volatility caused by inflation and geopolitical tensions. This transparency helped stabilize market expectations around the Fed's policy path.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring a hike

At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but saw a 9-3 split vote, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the decision as a rigorous review rather than a pause, signaling that further tightening remains possible and increasing market expectations for a September hike.

Fed holds rates steady with three dissenters favoring a hike

No change surges to 68%22%

On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting for a 25 basis point increase. Chair Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a rigorous review and signaling that rate hikes remain possible, which led markets to price in a likely September hike.

FOMC holds rates steady but signals possible September hike

25 bps increase surges to 54%42%

At the July 29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged but noted inflation remains above target and economic activity is solid, with some dissenters favoring a rate increase. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for a 25 bps hike in September.

Federal Reserve issues statement maintaining interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%

The Federal Reserve confirmed its monetary policy stance by maintaining the interest rate on reserve balances, signaling no immediate change to the federal funds rate ahead of the September meeting. This helped stabilize market expectations for no rate change.

Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes price stability amid divided FOMC

No change dips to 55%1%

Chair Kevin Warsh described the July FOMC meeting as a 'good family fight' with three dissenters favoring a rate hike. He emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability and avoided forward guidance, contributing to market uncertainty but ultimately supporting a hold on rates.

Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged at July Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns

25 bps increase surges to 56%19%

At the July 28-29 meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters favoring a hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target, leading markets to price in a possible rate increase in September, which influenced the rise in the '25 bps increase' option price.

Markets react to Fed's July hold with hawkish undertones and rate hike expectations

No change dips to 39%2%

Following the July 29 decision to hold rates steady, markets reacted to the hawkish tone and dissenting votes by pricing in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing. Treasury yields rose and the US dollar strengthened, reflecting expectations of a stronger USD if a September hike occurs.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike

No change plunges to 41%18%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation concerns. The dissenters' preference for a 25 bps increase highlighted internal divisions and kept the possibility of future hikes alive, influencing market pricing toward a no change or modest increase outcome.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and dissent

25 bps increase surges to 56%29%

On July 29, 2026, the Fed held interest rates steady in a 9-3 vote, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a 25 bps hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that the hold was a 'rigorous review' rather than a pause, reinforcing expectations for a September hike.

Three FOMC members dissent, preferring a 25 bps rate hike at July meeting

No change surges to 56%16%

At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, three members voted against maintaining the current rate, advocating for a 25 basis point increase due to elevated inflation. This dissent highlighted internal committee divisions and contributed to market uncertainty about the September decision.

Fed Chair Warsh rejects pause, signals possible rate hikes in September

No change surges to 67%28%

Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, describing the July hold as the beginning of a story. His hawkish tone led markets to price in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing for the first increase.

Fed holds rates steady in July with three dissenters favoring a hike

No change surges to 63%23%

On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a review period, and markets immediately priced in a likely September hike, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and energy price pressures.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns

No change jumps to 61%5%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting, with some dissenting votes favoring a quarter-point increase. Inflation remained elevated, and the Fed signaled a data-dependent approach, causing market probabilities for a 25 bps increase to rise significantly.

FOMC holds rates steady at July meeting with 9-3 vote

No change jumps to 55%11%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting. The decision was supported by a majority but faced dissent from three members advocating a 25 bps increase due to ongoing inflation concerns, signaling some internal division.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote

25 bps increase surges to 59%24%

On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 0.25-point increase. This decision reflected a split within the FOMC and influenced market expectations for the September meeting, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike.

Fed maintains ample reserves policy alongside steady rates

No change jumps to 68%5%

Along with holding rates steady in July, the Fed reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system, signaling a cautious stance on monetary tightening. This helped stabilize market expectations around no change or a modest 25 bps increase in September.

Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% with 9-3 vote, dissenters favor hike

25 bps increase rises to 27%4%

The July FOMC meeting ended with the Fed holding rates steady, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a rate hike. This unusual split highlighted uncertainty and contributed to increased market expectations for a possible 25 bps increase in September.

Fed Chair Warsh Signals Possible Rate Hike in September After July Hold

25 bps increase jumps to 33%5%

Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause and indicated that the hold was just the beginning of the story, with markets pricing in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, most likely starting in September. This hawkish stance pushed market probabilities toward a 25 bps increase in the near term.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with 9-3 vote, dissenters favor hike

The July FOMC meeting resulted in no rate change but featured three dissenting votes for a hike, signaling internal Fed caution about inflation. This split vote contributed to market uncertainty and fluctuating probabilities between 'No change' and '25 bps increase'.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting

No change jumps to 68%5%

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid elevated inflation and solid economic growth. This decision supported market expectations for no immediate change, causing the 'No change' option price to remain significant while reducing expectations for larger hikes or cuts.

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in July 2026 amid inflation concerns

No change jumps to 49%10%

The Fed maintained the target range at 3.50%-3.75% in July, with inflation remaining above target and some members favoring further tightening. The decision reflected ongoing uncertainty and diverse views on future rate moves.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

25 bps increase surges to 52%36%

The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote despite ongoing inflation above target and energy price spikes due to the Iran war. The dissenters favored a 25 bps hike, reflecting ongoing debate and keeping markets uncertain about the September decision, which increased the probability of a rate hike.

FOMC holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% with dissenters favoring a quarter-point hike

25 bps increase surges to 40%24%

The July 29, 2026 FOMC statement maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with a 9–3 vote. The statement noted inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly due to supply shocks including energy. The dissenters' preference for a 25 bps increase signaled growing hawkish sentiment, influencing market expectations for a possible September hike.

Federal Reserve holds rates with three dissenters favoring hike

No change rises to 45%3%

On July 29, 2026, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting for a 25 bps increase. Chair Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a review before potential hikes, which led markets to price in a likely rate increase at the September meeting.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July FOMC meeting

No change drops to 43%13%

The FOMC meeting on July 28-29 resulted in a decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with nine members supporting the pause and three dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The statement emphasized ongoing elevated inflation and solid economic growth, reinforcing a cautious but hawkish stance ahead of the September meeting.

FOMC July meeting ends with no rate change but notable dissent

No change drops to 64%10%

The July 28-29 FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, but with a 9-3 vote showing dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike. This split highlighted internal Fed divisions and contributed to market uncertainty, reflected in fluctuating probabilities for rate changes.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference emphasizes inflation control and cautious outlook

No change dips to 50%3%

Following the July 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation and indicated a cautious, data-dependent approach. His remarks contributed to market uncertainty but kept the door open for a September hike.

Fed meeting preview highlights internal debate and market expectations for September rate move

Ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, market participants anticipated a cautious Fed stance with a 62% probability of no change and 38% chance of a rate hike. The Fed faced a "family fight" over policy direction amid mixed inflation and labor market data, setting the stage for September decisions.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote

No change rises to 59%3%

At the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points hike. This decision reinforced market expectations of no immediate change in September, supporting the 'No change' outcome.

FOMC minutes reveal divided views on rate hike at July meeting

No change drops to 57%11%

The minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting showed that while the majority voted to keep rates steady, three members preferred a 25 basis points increase, indicating ongoing debate within the committee. This division contributed to market uncertainty and fluctuations in the probability of a 25 bps increase versus no change.

Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% in divided 9-3 vote

At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points increase. The statement emphasized elevated inflation and data dependence for future decisions, reinforcing market anticipation of a potential September hike.

FOMC holds rates steady in July with dissenters favoring hike

25 bps increase jumps to 51%7%

During the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. This highlighted internal Fed divisions and increased market expectations for a September hike.

Fed leadership signals possible rate hike amid inflation and labor market concerns

25 bps increase jumps to 52%14%

Ahead of the September meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described internal debates as a "family fight" over future rate moves, with investors increasingly anticipating a 25 bps hike due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. This contributed to rising market prices for the 25 bps increase outcome.

Market anticipates 25 bps rate hike in September amid hawkish Fed signals

25 bps increase jumps to 48%10%

Investor expectations shifted toward a 55% probability of a 25 bps increase at the September FOMC meeting, driven by hawkish comments from Fed officials and persistent inflation concerns, reflected in rising prices for the 25 bps increase outcome in prediction markets.

Rising market expectations for September Fed rate hike amid inflation and geopolitical tensions

25 bps increase surges to 45%21%

By late July, market data indicated a growing probability of a 25 bps rate increase in the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran conflict. Analysts highlighted the Fed's internal debates and the possibility of tightening monetary policy if inflation remains elevated.

Investors anticipate Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions

25 bps increase jumps to 54%13%

By late July 2026, investors increasingly expected a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation, energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, and a resilient labor market. Market data showed a 55% chance of a 25 bps increase and 26% chance of a 50+ bps hike, reflecting growing hawkish sentiment.

Market Pricing Shows 55% Chance of 25 bps Fed Rate Hike in September 2026

25 bps increase jumps to 36%8%

As of late July, market data indicated a 55% probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the September FOMC meeting, reflecting growing investor expectations for tightening monetary policy amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. This sentiment influenced the rising price for the 25 bps increase outcome in the prediction market.

Rising market odds for a 25 bps Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions

25 bps increase surges to 50%22%

As of late July, market expectations increased for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as the conflict in the Middle East. The bond market reflected this with rising Treasury yields, and analysts highlighted the Fed's internal debate described by Chair Warsh as a "family fight" over future rate policy.

Market odds rise for 25 bps Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical concerns

25 bps increase jumps to 59%9%

By late July 2026, market expectations for a 25 basis points rate increase in September rose to about 55%, driven by persistent inflation and tensions in the Middle East. This shift in sentiment contributed to the rising probability of the 25 bps increase outcome in the prediction market.

Market anticipates Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions

25 bps increase jumps to 37%6%

As the September FOMC meeting approaches, market odds for a 25 bps rate hike increased to around 55%, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks. This anticipation was driven by recent economic data and Fed officials' hawkish comments, impacting market pricing ahead of the meeting.

Rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns influence Fed rate hike expectations

25 bps increase jumps to 45%9%

Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with persistent inflationary pressures, increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September Fed meeting. Analysts noted that the labor market remained resilient, and inflation risks were elevated, prompting investors to price in a higher likelihood of rate increases.

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Discusses Navigating Economic Shocks Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Risks

No change dips to 43%2%

Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson highlighted the challenges the Fed faces balancing inflation control with economic growth amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. His remarks underscored the Fed's cautious approach and the conditional nature of future rate decisions, influencing market expectations for September.

Governor Lisa D. Cook highlights strong GDP growth and labor productivity

25 bps increase jumps to 49%7%

In a speech, Governor Cook reported that GDP growth in 2025 was 2.0% and forecasted 2.2% for 2026, exceeding prior expectations. She emphasized booming labor productivity, reinforcing the Fed's view of a resilient economy, supporting the likelihood of a rate hike.

Federal Reserve Governor Cook Highlights Economic Resilience and Inflation Challenges

Governor Cook's speech emphasized stronger-than-expected GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and persistent inflation above target, driven by core goods prices and productivity growth. This reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain a cautious stance on rates, with potential hikes if inflation remains elevated.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance amid inflation concerns

25 bps increase jumps to 51%12%

Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability and rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, reinforcing market expectations for a possible 25 bps rate hike in September. His testimony highlighted inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, influencing the rise in market pricing for a September increase.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns

25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%

In a speech on July 15, Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and supports maintaining restrictive monetary policy until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. This hawkish tone contributed to increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike.

Fed Officials Deliver Speeches Highlighting Inflation Persistence and Economic Outlook

25 bps increase rises to 39%2%

Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Michael Barr, gave speeches emphasizing the challenges of persistent inflation and the Fed's commitment to price stability. These communications reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach, supporting the probability of a rate hike later in 2026.

June CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, Below Forecast

No change dips to 39%2%

The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 showed a decline in inflation to 3.5%, below expectations, but core shelter inflation remained elevated. This data was closely watched ahead of the July FOMC meeting and influenced market expectations for the Fed's rate decision.

June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations

The June 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, providing the Fed some breathing room but leaving uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and core inflation remaining sticky.

Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress

Chairman Kevin Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report outlining the Fed's cautious stance on inflation and economic conditions. The report reinforced market expectations of steady or slightly higher rates, supporting the increased probability of a 25 bps hike in September.

June CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, but core shelter inflation remains elevated

No change dips to 59%2%

The July 14 release of June CPI data showed a decline in headline inflation to 3.5%, below forecasts, but core shelter inflation stayed high, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that support the Fed's cautious stance on rate changes.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance in July Speeches

25 bps increase surges to 38%22%

In speeches during July 2026, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on price stability and the challenges posed by inflation and geopolitical risks, contributing to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.

House Financial Services Committee Hears Fed Chair Warsh Testimony on Monetary Policy

25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Committee on Financial Services, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling a cautious but hawkish stance. This reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase contract price.

June CPI Data Shows Inflation Remains Elevated at 3.4% Annual Rate

25 bps increase surges to 38%22%

The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 indicated inflation at 3.4% annually, slightly down from May but still above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for continued vigilance on inflation and potential rate hikes.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee

25 bps increase jumps to 49%13%

Kevin Warsh testified emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling that interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase in the near future, contributing to rising probabilities for a rate hike in September.

Consumer Price Index shows biggest monthly decline in over six years in June

25 bps increase jumps to 33%5%

June's CPI report revealed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, driven by falling energy prices. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, easing pressure on the Fed but not enough to prompt immediate rate cuts. This data contributed to market expectations of a possible 25 bps hike in September rather than a cut.

Chairman Kevin Warsh presents semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress

25 bps increase surges to 51%15%

Chairman Warsh's report underscored the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling a hawkish stance that influenced market pricing toward a September rate increase.

Fed officials deliver semiannual Monetary Policy Report highlighting inflation risks

25 bps increase jumps to 50%11%

Chairman Kevin Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report on July 14, 2026, emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the Fed's commitment to price stability. This report influenced market sentiment towards a possible rate hike in September.

Speech by Governor Cook emphasizes resilient economic growth and inflation outlook

No change rises to 59%2%

Governor Cook highlighted stronger-than-expected GDP growth and inflation forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would maintain or cautiously adjust rates, influencing market sentiment toward no change or a modest hike.

Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Hawkish Speeches Highlighting Inflation Risks

25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller and Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman gave speeches emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need for cautious monetary policy. These remarks contributed to market expectations of a potential rate hike later in 2026, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in September.

Governor Cook warns inflation remains above expectations for 2026

25 bps increase surges to 53%28%

Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that headline and core inflation for 2026 are running about 1 percentage point higher than expected, driven by core goods prices rising at a 5% annual pace, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance and market anticipation of a rate hike.

Federal Reserve announces task forces to advance monetary policy conduct

The Federal Reserve announced five task forces led by external advisers to examine key areas of monetary policy conduct. This initiative signaled a commitment to rigorous policy review and potential future adjustments, contributing to market anticipation of possible rate changes later in 2026.

Market speculation rises on possible Fed rate hike amid inflation concerns

25 bps increase surges to 38%23%

Following hotter inflation data and hawkish Fed tone, markets increased expectations for a rate hike by September, reflecting uncertainty about inflation trajectory and Fed policy.

Market Analysts Highlight Increased Probability of September Rate Hike

25 bps increase surges to 54%23%

Market commentary in early July emphasized a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates in September due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This contributed to a significant increase in the market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike and a decline in expectations for no change or rate cuts.

Market anticipates imminent rate hike following hawkish FOMC June statement

25 bps increase surges to 40%24%

Following the June FOMC statement emphasizing price stability and persistent inflation, markets began pricing in a high probability of a rate increase by September, reflecting uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of hikes.

Markets anticipate imminent Fed rate hike amid persistent inflation and Warsh's hawkish signals

25 bps increase jumps to 37%12%

Following the July CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh's press conference, markets increasingly priced in a 25 bps rate hike in September due to ongoing inflation above target and the Fed's commitment to price stability. Treasury yields rose sharply reflecting these expectations.

New York Fed survey shows rising short- and medium-term inflation expectations in June

25 bps increase jumps to 33%5%

The New York Fed's June survey indicated that households' inflation expectations increased at the one- and three-year horizons, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation. This reinforced the Fed's cautious stance and market pricing for a potential rate hike in September.

July jobs report shows weaker employment growth, reducing odds of immediate Fed hike

No change drops to 70%6%

The July 2026 employment report showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, signaling a weakening labor market. This data reduced market expectations for an immediate rate hike, supporting the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in the near term.

June jobs report shows 57,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.2%

No change drops to 67%8%

The June employment report indicated continued job growth and a stable unemployment rate, supporting the Fed's view of a resilient labor market. This data reduced immediate pressure for rate cuts and contributed to market expectations of steady rates in the near term.

Federal Reserve Inflation Gauge Surges Above 4% in June 2026

25 bps increase surges to 59%21%

The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, rose to 4.1% in June, the highest since April 2023, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. This development increased market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026 to combat inflation.

US Core Inflation Rises to Highest Level Since 2023, Pressuring Fed for Rate Hike

25 bps increase rises to 19%3%

The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to 4.1% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. This increase intensified pressure on the Fed to consider raising interest rates to combat persistent inflation.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation

No change dips to 75%2%

At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion but persistent inflation above the 2% target. This decision reflected a cautious approach despite inflationary pressures, with some members dissenting in favor of a rate hike.

Kevin Warsh leads first Fed meeting, holds rates steady at 3.50–3.75%

25 bps increase surges to 38%22%

At his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, citing persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. The meeting revealed a divided committee with some members favoring a rate hike, which began shifting market expectations toward a September increase.

Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting emphasizes price stability, holds rates steady

At his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a focus on combating elevated inflation while deemphasizing maximum employment. This hawkish tone led markets to price in potential future hikes but no immediate change.

Kevin Warsh Leads First FOMC Meeting, Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%

No change dips to 74%2%

In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh oversaw the decision to keep interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The brief statement emphasized elevated inflation and introduced institutional reforms, reinforcing market expectations of a cautious approach to rate changes in 2026.

Federal Open Market Committee unanimously maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%

No change drops to 69%5%

The FOMC voted 12-0 to keep the target range unchanged, removing language suggesting an easing bias and emphasizing the need to deliver price stability amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and Middle East uncertainty

No change jumps to 70%5%

At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks from the Middle East conflict. The unanimous vote and statement reinforced a cautious stance, impacting market pricing toward a potential future hike.

FOMC Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in First Meeting Under Chair Warsh

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June meeting, signaling a pause amid elevated inflation and economic growth. This decision reinforced market expectations for no immediate rate cuts and supported the rising probability of a 25 bps increase by September.

Federal Reserve Board Votes Unanimously to Maintain Interest Rate Paid on Reserve Balances

No change surges to 81%28%

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent effective June 18, 2026, supporting the FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. This reinforced the Fed's cautious stance amid ongoing inflation and economic conditions.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation and Middle East conflict

At the June 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed unanimously held rates steady, highlighting ongoing inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, reinforcing a cautious stance and supporting market expectations of no change before September.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June meeting amid Middle East uncertainty

The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, noting solid economic expansion despite elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Inflation remained above the 2% target, reinforcing the Fed's commitment to price stability without immediate rate changes.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation

25 bps increase surges to 39%20%

At its June 17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth but elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, including energy prices. The Fed signaled a cautious approach, emphasizing price stability while acknowledging ongoing inflation risks, which influenced market expectations for future rate hikes.

Kevin Warsh leads first Federal Reserve meeting, holds rates steady

No change rises to 76%1%

At his first FOMC meeting as Chair on June 17, 2026, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a cautious, data-dependent approach amid elevated inflation and a stabilizing labor market. His less detailed forward guidance contributed to market uncertainty about future hikes.

Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid growth and elevated inflation

No change rises to 74%1%

At its June 16-17 meeting, the FOMC unanimously decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity and persistent inflation above the 2% goal. The statement removed easing bias and signaled a more hawkish outlook, leading markets to price in fewer rate cuts and potential hikes later in the year.

Kevin Warsh holds first Fed meeting, keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%

25 bps increase jumps to 38%12%

At his first Federal Reserve meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and energy price pressures from the U.S.-Iran conflict. The meeting revealed a divided committee with some policymakers expecting rate hikes later in 2026, influencing market expectations for a possible September increase.

Federal Reserve removes easing bias, signals possible rate hike later in 2026

No change drops to 69%7%

At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed removed language indicating a bias toward future rate cuts and signaled that a rate hike is possible later in 2026 due to accelerating inflation and a stable labor market. This hawkish shift caused markets to reassess expectations, reducing the likelihood of cuts and increasing the probability of hikes.

FOMC unanimously maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid growth

No change drops to 71%5%

The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the target range steady, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. The statement noted uncertainties from geopolitical tensions but reaffirmed commitment to price stability, supporting market expectations for no immediate rate change.

Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair, signaling hawkish policy stance

No change drops to 70%5%

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Fed Chair, emphasizing a commitment to price stability and signaling a potential hawkish tilt in monetary policy. His inaugural FOMC meeting maintained rates but removed forward guidance, increasing market uncertainty about future moves.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

No change drops to 45%8%

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing persistent inflation and supply shocks, particularly in energy, while signaling a cautious approach to balancing economic growth and price stability. This decision reinforced expectations of a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, causing market prices to adjust accordingly.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with hawkish dot plot

25 bps increase surges to 38%22%

At the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged but projected a higher median rate for year-end 2026, signaling a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment. This hawkish stance supported expectations for possible hikes later in the year.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish shift at June FOMC meeting

No change rises to 74%1%

Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair marked a shift away from easing bias, with projections indicating fewer rate cuts and the possibility of hikes later in 2026 due to accelerating inflation and firm labor markets.

Fed Interest Rate Decision June 2026: What It Means for You

No change drops to 70%5%

The Fed held rates steady amid accelerating inflation driven by energy costs and a resilient labor market. This decision signaled no immediate relief for borrowers, as inflation remained above target and wage growth lagged behind price increases.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Outlook in First Meeting

25 bps increase surges to 38%25%

In his first FOMC meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability amid elevated inflation, rejecting the idea of rate cuts in 2026 and indicating a possible rate hike later in the year. This hawkish tone contributed to market repricing toward higher rates and increased the probability of a 25 bps increase.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds first FOMC meeting, signals hawkish stance

25 bps increase surges to 38%22%

At his first meeting as Fed Chair, Warsh maintained rates at 3.50%–3.75% but emphasized no tolerance for elevated inflation. The meeting revealed a divided committee with nine members expecting at least one hike in 2026, influencing market expectations for a September increase.

Fed signals hawkish outlook, removing forward guidance on rate cuts

At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates steady but delivered a more hawkish message by removing prior forward guidance and signaling inflation risks remain, causing markets to reassess the likelihood of future hikes versus cuts.

Federal Reserve signals hawkish outlook, keeping rates steady but hinting at possible hikes

25 bps increase surges to 37%17%

At the June meeting, the Fed held rates steady but issued a more hawkish statement and projections, causing markets to reassess expectations and increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase. Treasury yields and the US dollar rose in response.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady but signals hawkish outlook amid inflation concerns

25 bps increase surges to 39%23%

In June, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% but delivered a hawkish message, emphasizing inflation risks and removing forward guidance. This caused markets to reassess expectations, increasing the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September as inflation remained above target despite a weakening labor market.

FOMC meeting reaffirms steady rates amid inflation concerns

At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, emphasizing its resolve to achieve price stability despite elevated inflation. This reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate change but left room for future hikes.

Federal Reserve maintains target federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June meeting

The FOMC decided to keep rates steady amid persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, reflecting a split among policymakers on whether to cut or hold rates. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming September meeting.

FOMC holds rates steady, removes easing bias amid inflation concerns

During the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and removed language suggesting an easing bias, signaling a more cautious approach due to persistent inflation above target despite solid economic growth. This hawkish tone influenced market expectations towards a possible rate hike later in the year.

Fed signals cautious outlook with no rate cuts despite inflation pressures

At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained rates and signaled a more hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and removing forward guidance on cuts. This caused markets to reassess expectations, increasing the probability of no change or a rate hike in September.

May Consumer Price Index shows highest inflation in three years, influencing Fed outlook

25 bps increase plunges to 10%25%

The May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, driven by energy price increases linked to the Iran War. This inflation data supported the Fed's cautious stance and hawkish signals for potential rate hikes later in 2026.

US Consumer Price Index rises 4.2% in May, highest in three years

The May 2026 CPI report showed a 4.2% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by a 40% spike in gasoline prices, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. This data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain or potentially raise interest rates to combat inflation.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in three years

25 bps increase rises to 16%4%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May 2026 Consumer Price Index report showing a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by a 40% spike in gasoline prices due to Middle East conflict. This report heightened concerns about persistent inflation, influencing the Fed's hawkish tone at the upcoming June meeting.

U.S. inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years

25 bps increase rises to 16%4%

Consumer prices surged 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven largely by energy price increases due to the Iran conflict, complicating the Fed's inflation outlook and increasing expectations for rate hikes. This inflation spike reinforced the Fed's cautious stance and hawkish projections in June.

U.S. Consumer Price Index for May 2026 shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in 3 years

25 bps increase surges to 39%23%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by energy price increases amid Middle East tensions, signaling persistent inflationary pressures that challenged expectations of rate cuts and supported a hawkish Fed outlook.

US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, highest in three years

25 bps increase jumps to 23%7%

The Consumer Price Index report released on June 10 showed inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven largely by energy prices, intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy.

Economists predict Fed will hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation

A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026 due to ongoing inflation pressures driven by war-related supply shocks and resilient economic indicators, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year.

Economists Poll Shows Majority Expect Fed to Hold Rates Through 2026

No change drops to 68%9%

A Reuters poll published on June 9, 2026, revealed that a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for the remainder of 2026 due to persistent war-driven inflation. This consensus marked a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing for no change or possible hikes later in the year.

Economists largely expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation

A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists forecast the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through the rest of 2026, reflecting persistent inflation driven by war-related factors. This consensus marked a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing of no change in the near term.

Majority of economists expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation

No change jumps to 57%7%

A Reuters poll showed that nearly 70% of economists forecast the Federal Reserve would keep its key interest rate unchanged through the rest of 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation driven by geopolitical tensions and energy prices. This consensus marked a shift away from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing for a stable or higher rate environment.

Reuters poll shows majority expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation

No change surges to 39%19%

A Reuters poll of economists revealed that nearly 70% expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation driven by war-related factors. Despite this, futures markets price in at least one rate hike by year-end, indicating some uncertainty.

May 2026 jobs report shows strong employment growth with 172,000 jobs added

25 bps increase rises to 16%4%

The May 2026 jobs report revealed a stronger-than-expected labor market with 172,000 jobs added, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance due to resilient employment and supporting expectations of future rate hikes.

May 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report shows strong job growth of 172,000

25 bps increase jumps to 21%5%

The May 2026 jobs report exceeded expectations with 172,000 new jobs added, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance by demonstrating labor market resilience despite inflationary pressures, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes later in the year.

Vice Chair Michelle Bowman testifies on supervision and regulation

Bowman's testimony highlighted regulatory perspectives amid economic uncertainties, indirectly supporting the Fed's cautious approach to interest rates and influencing market sentiment toward steady policy.

Jerome Powell defends Fed independence in JFK award speech

Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly defended the Federal Reserve's independence against political pressure, emphasizing the importance of non-political monetary policy. This reinforced market confidence in the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate, supporting expectations of steady rates.

Fed officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks

No change surges to 81%28%

On May 29, 2026, Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated, particularly due to war-driven energy price pressures. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for future tightening despite no immediate rate change, supporting the 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes.

Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict

No change surges to 81%28%

On May 29, Federal Reserve officials indicated that while there was no immediate urgency to adjust rates, they remained prepared to raise interest rates if inflation continued to rise due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. This hawkish tone contributed to market uncertainty about future rate hikes.

Federal Reserve officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks

25 bps increase drops to 12%14%

On May 29, Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation pressures persist, especially due to geopolitical risks such as the Middle East conflict. This hawkish tone contributed to market expectations shifting away from cuts toward potential hikes later in 2026.

Fed officials signal possible rate hike if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict

No change drops to 44%12%

Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting inflation risks but no immediate urgency to adjust rates. This contributed to market uncertainty about future hikes versus holds.

Fed officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation concerns

25 bps increase jumps to 38%12%

Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation persists, reflecting concerns over the impact of Middle East conflict on energy prices and inflation. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for rate hikes later in 2026.

Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if inflation persists amid Middle East tensions

25 bps increase jumps to 38%12%

On May 29, 2026, Federal Reserve officials indicated they might raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated due to supply shocks and geopolitical risks, including the Iran war. This cautious hawkish tone contributed to market uncertainty about future rate hikes.

Fed officials signal possible rate hikes amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict

25 bps increase surges to 39%23%

Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation risks persist due to the Middle East conflict. While some officials saw no urgency to adjust rates immediately, hawkish dissenters highlighted inflation concerns, increasing market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026.

Fed Governor Cook Highlights AI and Economic Outlook at Stanford

No change surges to 74%21%

Governor Lisa D. Cook's speech emphasized resilient economic output and inflation expectations, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate changes. This helped maintain market confidence in a steady policy, supporting the 'No change' outcome.

Speech by Governor Waller highlights inflation concerns and market expectations

Governor Waller expressed concerns about rising inflation expectations, signaling vigilance on inflation risks which contributed to market anticipation of a possible rate increase.

Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Federal Reserve Chair at White House

Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve, marking a leadership transition from Jerome Powell. His appointment introduced market uncertainty about future rate policy, as Warsh emphasized independence and reform but faced political pressures.

Kevin Warsh succeeds Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman

Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair, emphasizing data-driven decisions without forward guidance, which increased uncertainty about future rate moves. This leadership change contributed to market volatility and influenced expectations around the September meeting.

Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, signaling potential policy shift

25 bps increase drops to 16%10%

Kevin Warsh took office as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, bringing a hawkish reputation and skepticism toward unconventional monetary policy, which influenced market expectations toward a less accommodative stance and potential rate hikes.

Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chairman

25 bps increase drops to 17%9%

The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair on May 13, and his leadership was expected to mark a shift in monetary policy. This appointment influenced market expectations, as Warsh was seen as more hawkish compared to his predecessor, contributing to early price movements favoring a rate increase.

Kevin Warsh Sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, Signals Cautious Monetary Policy

Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, marking a leadership transition. His approach emphasized data-driven decisions without forward guidance, contributing to market uncertainty but reinforcing expectations of steady rates in the near term.

Kevin Warsh appointed as new Federal Reserve Chairman

No change dips to 74%2%

Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling a shift towards data-driven policy without forward guidance. This increased market uncertainty about future rate moves, contributing to fluctuating expectations but overall supporting a cautious approach with no immediate rate changes.

Kevin Warsh appointed new Federal Reserve Chair, signals data-driven policy

Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair and emphasized reacting to economic data rather than providing forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about future rate moves. This contributed to market indecision but generally supported the 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes as most probable.

Fed Governor Waller Discusses Economic Outlook Amid Inflation and Tariff Effects

No change surges to 74%21%

Governor Christopher J. Waller's speech highlighted the modest effects of import tariffs on inflation and the ongoing elevated inflation pressures, signaling cautious Fed policy. This contributed to early market positioning for no rate cuts and potential future hikes, supporting the 'No change' outcome.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals data-driven approach, no immediate rate cuts

25 bps increase drops to 17%9%

Following his appointment in May 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a data-dependent monetary policy approach, avoiding forward guidance and indicating that rate cuts are unlikely soon given persistent inflation. This stance contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate decreases and a gradual increase in the probability of a 25 bps rate hike by September.

Fed Officials See Rate Hike Ahead if Inflation Remains Elevated

25 bps increase jumps to 38%12%

Minutes from the May 2026 meeting revealed that many Fed officials anticipated the need for interest rate increases if inflationary pressures, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, persisted. This hawkish sentiment contributed to market pricing in a higher likelihood of rate hikes later in 2026, influencing the market's evolving expectations.

Fed Minutes Reveal Split Views on Inflation and Rate Cuts Amid Middle East Conflict

Minutes from the May 2026 FOMC meeting showed a divided committee with some participants advocating for rate cuts if inflation pressures eased and the Middle East conflict resolved, while others expressed concern about embedded inflation risks due to elevated energy prices and tariffs. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and shifting rate hike probabilities.

Fed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show

No change surges to 81%28%

Minutes from the Fed's May meeting revealed that many officials anticipated the need for interest rate increases if inflation, exacerbated by the Iran war, remained high. This signaled a shift away from earlier expectations of rate cuts and contributed to market uncertainty.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid inflation concerns

No change surges to 80%27%

The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the May 2026 FOMC meeting, citing persistent inflation above the 2% target and supply shocks, particularly in energy. This decision reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate cuts and maintained a cautious outlook on future hikes.

US inflation rises 4.2% year over year, highest in three years

No change plunges to 50%17%

Inflation data released in May showed a 4.2% increase year over year, the highest in three years, dampening hopes for rate cuts and supporting expectations that the Fed would maintain or raise rates to combat inflation.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid mixed economic signals

The Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% as of May 13, 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation concerns and economic growth. This contributed to initial market expectations favoring no change in September.

May CPI data shows 4.2% annual inflation amid Iran war impact

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.5% monthly increase in CPI and 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026, the highest in three years, driven by higher energy prices due to the Iran war. This elevated inflation raised expectations for continued Fed vigilance on rates.

Inflation rises to highest level in three years amid Iran conflict

25 bps increase drops to 12%14%

US inflation rose 4.2% year over year in May, the highest in three years, driven by energy price spikes and supply chain disruptions from the Iran war. This diminished hopes for rate cuts and increased the likelihood of rate hikes later in 2026.

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair by Senate

25 bps increase plunges to 11%15%

Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair introduced expectations of a hawkish monetary policy stance amid ongoing inflation challenges, influencing market pricing toward a potential rate hike later in 2026.

Market anticipates Fed rate cut path in 2026 amid economic uncertainty

No change rises to 55%2%

Early in the analysis window, markets priced in a significant probability of rate cuts in 2026, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and economic growth. However, this sentiment shifted as inflation remained elevated and the Fed under new leadership signaled a more hawkish stance, reducing expectations for cuts and increasing the likelihood of hikes later in the year.

Stronger-than-expected inflation report shifts market outlook away from rate cuts

25 bps increase jumps to 38%12%

A May inflation report showed a 4.2% annual CPI increase, the highest in three years, raising concerns about persistent inflation and reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. This led markets to price in a higher chance of a rate hike later in 2026.

Federal Reserve maintains steady rates amid mixed economic signals

At the start of the analysis window, the Fed held rates steady as economic data showed mixed signals on inflation and growth. Market prices reflected uncertainty, with the 'No change' and '25 bps increase' options both holding significant probabilities.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.6% in early 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve decided to keep the short-term interest rate unchanged at about 3.6% during its first meeting of 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed pressures from inflation and employment concerns. This decision set the baseline for market expectations for the rest of the year.

US inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years amid energy price shock

25 bps increase drops to 12%14%

US Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven mainly by energy price shocks linked to Middle East conflicts. This surge diminished hopes for rate cuts and increased market expectations for a potential rate hike later in the year.